brownalytics
CLEVELANd (0-1)
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VS
​New york (0-1)
monday, SEPTEMBER 16th 2019
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east Rutherford, nj
​The Browns and Jets meet during week two of the 2019 season in a rematch of the very first Monday Night Football broadcast back in 1970. On that day, the Browns bested Joe Namath and the Jets 31-21 on the strength of three interceptions in front of a record crowd at Cleveland Municipal Stadium (cleveland.com reposted the excellent recap from the following day's Plain Dealer here if you'd like to read more). Our teams' matchup in 2019 may just have fans of both teams on the edges of their respective seats once again as both the Browns and the Jets are faced with an important early season test. Both teams hope to avoid 0-2 starts and the questions that will follow for the loser after each spent considerable resources in the off season to add firepower around their newfound franchise QB's. For their part, the Jets enter the week under significant pressure from injuries to key players and under the shadow of having blown a late 16-point lead to division rivals Buffalo in their season opener. Starting QB Sam Darnold will not play per reports and the availability of big money acquisitions (and noted Browns killers) RB Le'Veon Bell and LB C.J. Mosley along with that of #3 overall draft pick DT Quinnen Williams is also in question. The chips would seem to be stacked against New York, but the Browns have a lot to prove after an embarassing 30-point loss in week one put an emphatic end to the offseason positivity that has buzzed around this team since March. The Browns will have to play clean, mistake-free football to win a tough draw under the bright lights on the road, but the Jets are equally desperate for a win in front of their home fans. For all the belief around Cleveland being able to bounce back this week, Brownalytics' win probability model projects our Browns leaving this game reeling, losing by a projected final score of 21-17. With that said, let's explore a few ways that Cleveland can defy those indicators and come home with a week two win, starting first with an opposing fan's perspective on how the Jets might best match up with the Browns.
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the Jets is friend of the blog Brandon Brobst!
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​Adam Gase and Dowell Loggins should consider manufacturing Tight End targets on early downs when building the Jets’ offensive gameplan for their Monday Night matchup versus the Browns. Tight End was where the Jets had the most positive early-down targets last year, with TE Chris Herndon being the only receiving target with a greater than 50% Success Rate (percentage of plays with a positive EPA) last year.
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​​When playing the Browns last year, offenses posted similar EPAs and had a higher Success Rates when targeting Tight Ends compared to targeting Wide Receivers on early downs.
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​​One game is a small sample to be sure, but each of the seven times the Titans targeted Tight Ends Delanie Walker or Jonnu Smith in week one of 2019 were on first or second down. Those plays earned an average EPA of 1.09 and had a positive EPA on 6 of 7 targets (85% Success Rate), including two touchdowns. Chris Herndon is serving a four game suspension, so the Jets will have to rely on Free Agent acquisition Ryan Griffin or fourth-round rookie Trevon Wesco (who is viewed as more of an H-Back) if they intend to implement this strategy.
When it comes to attacking Cleveland’s offense, Gregg Williams was hired as Defensive Coordinator after spending last year with the Browns and is tasked with improving a Jets pass rush that ranked 26th in Pressure Rate when rushing four players and 30th in pressure rate when blitzing with 5 or more players, per Football Outsiders. There was little sign of improvement in to start 2019, managing a 21% pressure rate on Buffalo passing plays, ranking 25th among week one defensive performances. Pressure is effective against any quarterback, and Baker Mayfield is no exception; his adjusted completion percentage dropped 15% when under pressure last season, and he was 17% worse in week one when under pressure despite the much-maligned Browns offensive line allowing a manageable 26% pressure rate versus the Titans. If Williams's defense can pressure Mayfield into an uneven week two performance, the Jets would stand a much better chance of evening their record at 1-1 on Monday night.
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- Jets pregame matchup analysis contributed by Brandon Brobst (Twitter: @bdbrobst)
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Jets' offense's main strength so far in this very young season is in turnover avoidance (the 4th down conversion rate ranking is a misnomer as only 10 teams have attempted a 4th down conversion). So far, the Jets' offense has been able to hold onto the ball when their defense gives it back to them more often than nearly every other team in the league (three teams are tied for first in net turnovers today). Weaknesses continue to be evident in point generation and passing efficiency metrics (both issues in 2018) while they're not much better so far at converting 3rd downs, rushing efficiency or keeping their QB sack free. The Jets' completion percent would appear to be a somewhat notable strength, but it is mostly attributable to very shallow target depth (5.3 yds) in week one of the season. This reliance on shallow targets may have been forced by Buffalo's defense, but this is more likely evidence of Sam Darnold's continued reliance on check-down throws carrying over from his rookie campaign.
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The Browns' significant weaknesses in passing efficiency and point allowance would seem to be negated by the Jets' corresponding weaknesses at producing in these areas. Sample sizes being what they are after one week however, it's honestly anyone's guess as to whether these attributes truly end up cancelling one another out on Monday night. The Browns' defensive strengths in sack generation and 3rd down conversion allowance would seem to fit nicely into areas of minor weakness for the Jets' offense and these would appear to be areas of potential advantage for Cleveland in week two. Completion Percentage being a strength for both the Jets' offense and for the Browns' defense will be an interesting category to watch. Will the Jets continue to rely on short throws in the passing game or will they attempt to use a larger portion of the field in this week's match up to more effectively generate positive gains on offense? Adam Gase's tactics with regards to how he employs the Jets' passing attack on Monday will be interesting to watch for.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
Picking up right where he left off in Cleveland, Gregg Williams's defense was tied with only San Francisco atop the league after week one with four turnovers forced. Of course, relying on turnover generation isn't particularly reliable business from week to week (just ask the 2018 Browns), but at the very least Cleveland's coaching staff should be aware that the Jets' aggressive defensive style will necessitate a heightened focus on taking better care of the ball in week two. The Jets' weaknesses through week one would appear to lie in stopping the run, allowing first downs early in series and in sacking the opposing Quarterback. If lack of success in these areas during week one continues into week two, Cleveland's offensive line - maligned by fans if not the analytics community - would seem to be a key to opening up holes for Nick Chubb to exploit in the run game and for keeping Baker Mayfield clean enough of pressure to challenge the Jets' coverage downfield with the pass.
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Flipping to look at how the Browns offense matches up against this early picture of the 2019 Jets, we see that it would indeed appear that Cleveland's rushing efficiency vs. the Jets' weakness against the run may be the primary strength to exploit in week two. This is especially true if either or both of C.J. Mosley or Quinnen Williams ends up missing the game with injury. On the other side of the coin, the Browns will obviously need to find a way to put points on the board far more efficiently than they did in week one against a bend-don't-break defense that will have a better scouting report than most on Cleveland's offensive tendencies. This starts with limiting penalties (CLE Wk1: 10 offensive penalties, 8 defensive) and staying ahead of the chains instead of staring down 1st & 15 or 1st & 20 situations over and over again. Passing on early downs, especially off of play action, would likely help as well, given the obvious issues that New York had in stopping the run last week and the likelihood that they'll be keen to clean up that area of their game heading into this matchup.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The Jets' changeover from the coaching tandem of Todd Bowles and Jeremy Bates in 2018 to Adam Gase and Dowell "wreck this league" Loggains necessitates a bit of deeper lookback into play calling tendencies than normal and, frankly, complicates matters a bit. Looking back into Gase's most recent season with the Dolphins, we see evidence of a fairly vanilla Run-Pass-Pass style that was ranked a bit below the middle of the NFL in 1st down pass rate during 2018. The 2019 Jets, however, threw the ball a whopping 68% of the time on first down in week one, which would have ranked near the very top of the league in that measure last season. It's hard to say for sure what the Jets playcalling tendencies will ultimately end up being in 2019. But, given the fact that they led for most of their week one match up with Buffalo and still passed as frequently as they did, brownalytics' assessment would be that we'll see another pass-heavy script from Gase on Monday night, even given the news that backup QB Trevor Siemian will start in place of Sam Darnold.
With the Dolphins in 2018, Gase was actually less conservative in his red zone play calling tendencies than he was overall, passing on first down about 4.5% more frequently inside his opponents' 20 yard line. The Jets' lone red zone opportunity during the 2019 season came in the middle of the third quarter in week one with greater than 80% win probability, so we don't have a graphical view of how Gase would call plays in that situation, but the sequence went Run-Pass-Pass TD, which - small a sample size as it may be - does align with what he tended to call last season in Miami.
And of course, no analysis of Adam Gase's tendencies would be complete without a nod to his intense desire for tacos.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The Jets will, according to reports, be without Sam Darnold on Monday night, leaving the Browns to face a capable backup QB in Trevor Siemian, whose last regular season action came with Denver in 2017. The early read on the Jets' from week one is that their offense seems content to attack the shallow areas of the field (week one ADoT 5.3yd) while taking measured shots downfield only seldomly. Siemian has shown a bit more of a propensity to attack downfield with average to above-average success in his career than the Jets evidenced in week one (career ADoT 8.6yd), so it'll be interesting to see how the Jets elect to attack the Browns defense in week two. Given the Jets week one tendency to pass early and often, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gase start the game by testing Cleveland's coverage unit early with a few downfield plays before settling in on a more balanced strategy later in the proceedings.
Given the Jets' week one reliance on the short passing game, it's not surprising to see that the lion's share of targets went to RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Jamison Crowder between the line of scrimmage and 5 yards target depth. Robby Anderson was Darnold's primary target downfield, but success didn't follow against an up-and-coming Buffalo defense.
As discussed earlier, the Jets' rushing attack was a bit of a mixed bag in week one with Gase attacking through the short passing game instead of relying on handoffs. Strengths along the Jets' O-line are hard to determine from the chart below, but a potential weakness could exist between veteran Center Ryan Kalil and Right Guard Brian Winters, where below average to poor efficiency was realized against the Bills in week one. This could be another area where the quality of the Jets' week one opponent is more evident than any weakness on their part, so it'll be interesting to keep tabs on how this plays out against the Browns this week.
​Defensive Efficiency:
The Jets' pass defense was quite good to the center and right sides of the field against Buffalo in week one, but allowed more success to the left side of the field. This evidence of a potentially exploitable corner matchup somewhere in the Jets' secondary should spur the Browns' coaching staff to identify and seek to target this mismatch (possibly Landry vs. Darryl Roberts?) whenever possible throughout the evening.
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The Jets' run defense in week one was strong through the middle of their front, but weak to the outsides. Williams and company will hope that their base 3-4 will hold up better against a Cleveland rushing attack that gained yardage on the ground most efficiently outside end against Tennessee last week.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 9/12/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 9/12/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NYJ; Retrieved 9/12/2019.
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4. Brobst, Brandon. "Jets Week 2 Preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 9/12/2019. E-Mail.
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5. Tenor. "Wasted Tacos GIF". https://tenor.com/view/wasted-tacos-hungry-adam-gase-gif-13291293. Retrieved 9/11/2019.
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6. Heaton, Chuck via Exner, Rich. "85,703 See Browns Win, 31-21". The Plain Dealer. 9/21/1970. Retrieved from https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2019/09/browns-win-over-joe-namath-and-jets-in-debut-of-monday-night-football.html. 9/12/2019.