brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-0)
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​TAMPA BAY (1-1)
FRIDAY, August 23RD 2019
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TAMPA, FL
The Browns head to (potentially) stormy Tampa for a preseason week three matchup with a Buccaneers squad that is looking for a new identity after a disappointing 5-11 campaign in 2018 that saw the team fire their coaching staff and land a top-5 pick in the NFL draft. Tampa reloads with retread coaches in HC Bruce Arians, Marshall University's own Byron Leftwich at OC and DC Todd Bowles, who will look to get this Bucs team pointed in the right direction. Tampa being able to make their first playoff appearance since the 2007 season seems like a tall order given that they play in what brownalytics projects to be a very competitive NFC South. But significant turnover on defense, coupled with an already explosive passing offense (and some luck), could accelerate a turnaround more quickly than most expect.
Overview:
Preseason game number three is typically the "dress rehearsal" game where teams put their starting units on the field for about 2.5 quarters; it's usually the most realistic preseason preview of a team's "new look" in any given year. This season, however, there's really no telling how much, if at all, the Browns (and, correspondingly, their opponent's) starters will see the field on Friday. Combine this uncertainty with the wholly revamped coaching staff in Tampa and it's speculative at best to project exactly how this game will look ahead of time. But hey, I've got all of these colorful graphs and charts, so let's give it the old college try anyway!
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Offensive Ranks:
Despite jettisoning their head coach, Tampa Bay's offense was actually very good statistically in several important categories last season. A clear strength was the passing game, where Tampa ranked near the very top of the league in yardage over the course of the 2018 season. They were also very efficient at converting first downs, both on high leverage (3rd/4th) downs and when "ahead of schedule" earlier in a series. Where Tampa's offense was a middling threat in the generation of points, allowance of sacks, and completion percentage. In what was a fairly one-dimensional offense, this stands to reason as opponents - recognizing the lack of a running threat - were able to play a bend-but-don't-break scheme that allowed yards in the open field but restricted Tampa's ability to generate points as they entered the red zone. Combine with this the fact that Tampa was quite bad relatively at making field goals and at not turning the ball over, and the portrait of a high variance offense comes into focus. The Bucs showed the ability to burn an opponent for sure, but there were key elements lacking in their offensive consistency that held this team back from achieving the offensive heights that the NFL saw in 2018 through the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and the LA Rams.
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Defensive Ranks:
When Tampa Bay's inconsistent offense would cough up a turnover or fail to convert a field goal after stalling a drive in enemy territory, the defense wasn't able to bail them out very frequently in 2018. Tampa's defense ranked bottom quarter in the league in most defensive categories, and bottom half in nearly all of the rest. Notably Tampa's inabilities to keep their opponents off of the scoreboard, to pressure opposing QB's with consistency, to get off the field on 3rd downs and to limit opponents passing yards per attempt were particularly influential in condemning the team to a coaching change and a top-5 draft pick in 2019. Given this backdrop, it's unsurprising that Tampa chose to prioritize the defensive side of the ball with the five picks they held in rounds 1-4 in Nashville this past Spring and that they elected to bolster their defensive front with veteran wrecking ball Ndamukong Suh. It's too early to tell whether this infusion of talent will translate to wins this season, but almost anything should be better than what Tampa lined up with in 2018.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
Tampa's play calling tendencies in 2019 will likely be different than what we saw out of Dirk Koetter's team in 2018. Through two weeks in the preseason, we see evidence of a pass-first style that looks far more like the Colts offense that the Browns saw in week two than it does Washington's offense from week one. In fact, compared to the rest of the NFL in 2018, the 2019 preseason Bucs would rank near the top of the league in first down pass rate. But the preseason isn't necessarily indicative of how a coaching staff will end up structuring their offense during the regular season, so let's take a look at how Bruce Arians tended to call plays in Arizona during the final year of his tenure there.
Arians's reputation is that of a passing game aficionado, and maybe he has been compared to trends in the game several years back, but Arians's play calling in Arizona during the 2017 season suggests a more conservative philosophy than the narrative around him would have us believe. A pass rate of 48% on first down would rank Arians's 2017 offense solidly in the middle of the NFL when compared to league wide trends in 2018. It's hard to say which philosophy Arians will favor in Tampa Bay this year, but if I were on the Browns' scouting staff, I'd be expecting a pass-heavy game plan from the Bucs in Friday's upcoming match up.
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So how do these baselines change in the red zone?
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In the very limited sample of the 2019 preseason, Arians has shown deception on first down, but somewhat puzzling play calling choices thereafter. In the 2019 preseason, Tampa has faced 2nd down in the red zone in game-neutral situations only four times through two games. On all of these plays, the average distance to go has been between about 6.2 yards; subjectively speaking, most would expect a pass play on 2nd & 6, but Arians has elected to run the ball 75% of the time here. Again, the preseason isn't an ideal test bed for how a coach might call games when they count, so let's take a look at how Arians handled similar red zone situations in 2017 with Arizona.
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Offensive Effectiveness:
Here again, we find a more conservative play calling breakdown in Arians's past than the national narrative would lead us to believe with regards to Arians's preferred style of football. Additionally, Arians's play calling tendencies in Arizona look nothing like what he has called so far in Tampa Bay this preseason.
So what's the read here? Brownalytics's assessment of the data presented is that Arians wants to run the ball in the red zone to maintain ball control and limit the risk of high leverage turnovers. In Arizona, his 2nd down red zone play calling appears to have been dependent upon his team's distance to go, with passes being called in these situations at an average distance of 7.8 yards to the sticks and runs being called when this distance dropped to below 4 yards. If accurate, this would evidence a much more conservative, and predictable, philosophy than we have been conditioned to believe about Arians over the course of the past year. Could Bruce's approach have evolved in the year's stint he had calling games in the booth versus calling plays from the sideline? Absolutely it could have. Does the evidence suggest that he's more conservative as a play caller than he has been billed to be? It seems to, yes.
Offensive Effectiveness:
We're back to looking in the rear view mirror to assess where Tampa Bay had the most success on offense last season. In the pass game, Tampa's best most efficient results tended to come in the 10-20 yard range across the field in 2018. Aside from that, Tampa was good to the deep right of the field and average to above average to all other target areas. Roster and coaching turnover from 2018 to 2019 could significantly impact this baseline, however. Gone are Head Coach Dirk Koetter, OC Todd Monken as well as the very efficient Adam Humphries. Ex-Brown Breshad Perriman will hope to continue his career revival standing in for consistent deep threat Desean Jackson who returned to Philadelphia during the offseason.
In the target chart above, we observe a team that attacked varying levels of the field with the targets that seem best suited to exploiting matchups at specific depths of the opposing defense. Mike Evans was incredibly efficient at producing EPA on many, primarily downfield, targets throughout the 2018 season. It will remain to be seen if his efficiency will be impacted by the aforementioned departure of Desean Jackson. All that said though, this offense isn't hurting for receiving threats as many are expecting big years from Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard in 2019, who produced reliably on mid-range targets last season. Cameron Brate was used primarily as a short route threat in 2018 and should continue to play the role of safety valve in 2019.
In the running game, Tampa was average-to above average in terms of generating EPA in 2018. The strength of their rushing attack seems to align with the right side of their offensive line, where the team was able to gain positive EPA, 5.2 YPA and about a 50% success rate. Runs behind right tackle and right guard netted the Bucs more than 1 additional yard per attempt on average than did runs through their second-best blocking lane, outside of left tackle, in 2018.
​Defensive Effectiveness:
As described above, Tampa's pass defense was dicey in 2018. Opponents passed with above-average to good efficiency against the Bucs to all areas of the field at 10 yards depth of target and beyond. Looking at the chart above, It's no wonder that GM Jason Licht elected to prioritize coverage with so many mid-round picks in the 2019 draft. Tampa did manage to limit opponents' efficiency on short passes for the most part, but with teams having fairly consistent success downfield against them, that silver lining isn't much to write home about.
The Bucs' rushing defense was best through the center of the line and over their opponents' left tackle. With the swap of Ndamukong Suh for Gerald McCoy up the middle, the departure of Jason Pierre-Paul, and a shift to Todd Bowles's 3-4 base front, Tampa will hope a tactical shakeup is the right prescription for limiting opponents' rushing success in 2019. Of note, ex-Brown and amateur financial advisor Carl Nassib is slated to start at Outside Linebacker for Tampa this season; it'll be interesting to see how his skills translate to that role instead of playing primarily as a down lineman as he did in Cleveland.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 8/18/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 8/22/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/TB; Retrieved 8/22/2019.