brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-1)
​VS
​DETROIT (0-3)
thursday, August 29th 2019
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cleveland, oh
Preseason game number four is usually the one where backups get the vast majority, if not all, of the playing time in order for the coaching staff to get the best read possible on who will end up making the team for the regular season. It's a weird game to watch for longtime followers of any team to be honest. For one, it's not a game that tells us anything about what the regular season will look like, but we root for our teams to win regardless. We do so with full awareness that, hours later, the standings from the preseason will be erased from memory and many of the men playing will move on to other teams or to their post football lives. It's a game for long shots; for guys who have worked their whole lives to be in that game and who hope to hang on to the dream of playing a game for a living just a little while longer. Personally, I always feel a bit of a romantic sense of finality in watching the last preseason game; rooting hard for every guy out there to accomplish that one thing on the field that they might proudly remember doing for the rest of their lives, wherever they might lead.
Overview:
Setting the stage for this Browns vs. Lions matchup directly, each team comes in hoping to rebound from disappointing previous outings. Cleveland is looking to prove that a sloppy offensive effort against Tampa Bay (despite the defense's stellar play) is a blip that isn't indicative of their future trajectory. Detroit, sitting at 0-3, is likely hoping for a win to provide a boost heading into the regular season and an unenviable week one road matchup against the new-look Arizona Cardinals. Both coaching staffs would seem to be built for the long term and are looking to hasten a future where these Lake Erie rivals have more to play for than the honor of hoisting the Great Lakes Classic Barge!
Offensive Ranks:
Detroit's offense wasn't great in 2018, ranking top-half of the league in four of the eighteen statistics presented above. On top of that, the stats they were good in don't show evidence of really mattering to predicting wins from week to week. Time of possession was top half of the league, but that isn't important unless you lead in games and it's not likely that your team is leading in games in today's NFL when you rank 27th in Points per Play and 26th in Pass Yards per Attempt. Important categories like 3d conversion rate were notably weak for this offense as were net turnovers. Essentially, Detroit has a lot of work to do on the offensive side of the ball in 2019 if they want to compete in a sneaky competitive NFC North sooner rather than later. The additions of college standout TE T.J. Hockenson from Iowa, former Steeler Jesse James, and the ageless WR Danny Amendola will be relied upon this season to turn their fortunes around under new OC Darrell Bevell, who previously served in the same role with the Vikings and Seahawks prior to joining Matt Patricia's this offseason in relief of all-name hall of famer Jim Bob Cooter.
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Defensive Ranks:
Detroit's defense was a slightly different, albeit still mediocre, story in 2018 as the Lions ranked top-half in the league in nine of eighteen categories presented in the chart above. Of the stats to highlight here for Detroit, Points Allowed per Play, Yards per Play and Completion Percent by opponents were all middle of the road in 2018 and provide evidence of a team that would end up finishing 6-10. Detroit's statistical strengths in 2018 (FG Conversion Rate Against, Sack Rate For) would seem notable, but evidence suggests that these are fairly insignificant to predicting week-to-week wins. This dynamic mitigates some of the positive observations presented above, but Matt Patricia and company will expect that big-money signings and mid-round draft picks are the right combination to put the Lions over the top defensively in 2019.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
Jim Bob Cooter's play calling tendencies in 2018 aligned more closely to the traditional, conservative NFL's run-pass-pass pattern than to other, more progressive coaches' tendencies. It's hard to say what the Lions' offense will look like in 2019, but their play calling tendencies in the preseason so far, we do see evidence of a more pass-focused scheme (on first down, at least) than the Lions ran last year, so there's some hope for this team under Bevell.
In the red zone, Patricia and Cooter became significantly more conservative (a leaguewide tendency), calling runs more frequently on first and second downs 12% more than in the open field last year. That kind of play calling certainly is defensible in close games when your veteran kicker, Matt Prater, has converted 83% of his FG attempts over the course of his lengthy career. But for a team in need of more points scoring efficiency in 2019, revisiting the red zone script is likely high on the list of to-do's for this coaching staff as the season gets started.
Offensive Effectiveness:
Despite conservative play calling, the Lions displayed above-average efficiency passing to most areas of the field past the line of scrimmage in 2018. A notable exception is to the deep middle of the field - one of the most valueable pass target areas historically - where Matt Stafford and company put up below average efficiency in terms of generating EPA. Imagining T.J. Hockenson and Jesse James running seam routes in this offense from the TE position should give fans one hope for the future, but their ability to do so will be dependent on how well Detroit's coaching staff integrates him into their offensive scheme.
The Lions' receiving chart is ho-hum. Only two players, both WR's, produced consistent downfield positive results while a host of players were seemingly tasked with running routes short of 10yd ADoT, all with middling results. The aforementioned additions of Hockenson and Amendola are encouraging, but again, the team will need to utilize these weapons differently than their counterparts were in 2018 if increased production is to be expected. With that said, Kenny Golladay produced very efficiently for the Lions in 2018 despite evidence suggesting that they passed the football with difficulty otherwise. Marvin Jones could benefit from an infusion of talent into this offense as opposing defenses should have more to worry about from Detroit's offensive skill players than they did in 2018. Golden Tate's production will need to be replaced, but what seem to be significant upgrades at the TE position (Hockenson, James) should be able to account for his productivity in the 5-10 yard ADoT range.
Detroit did have a fairly efficient run attack from an EPA perspective to most gaps of the offensive line in 2018, struggling notably though through center, where the majority of their carries ended up channeling. Rookie RB Kerryon Johnson, hobbled by injury after Week 10, was a part of this success and the team will obviously hope that he can pick up where he left off in 2019 (5.4 Y/A prior to being injured). Balanced with a more effective and frequently utilized passing attack, Detroit could surprise offensively in 2019.
​Defensive Effectiveness:
Detroit's defense gave up above-average passing efficiency to all areas of the field in 2018 and are likely the poster children for needing to prioritize an all-around effective coverage group in subsequent seasons to maximize the very talented players that they have on the roster today (Darius Slay). Unfortunately for Lions fans, the team seems to have placed their bets at the Windsor casinos on Pass Rush ability instead of bolstering their coverage skill during their most recent offseason. The Lions added blue chip free agent Trey Flowers and Romeo Okwara to their D-Line in hopes of bolstering an already-strong group returning Damon "Snacks" Harrison and the up-and-coming talent of A'Shawn Robinson. If generating a more threatening pass rush than the Lions did in 2018 (when they ranked 11th in Sacks per game and 4th in Sack Rate) is the goal here, it remains to be seen whether this will have any corresponding effect on the team's effectiveness against opposing passing offenses. Of course, a key element to mention is the continued development of third-year, former 2nd round pick CB Jalen "Teez" Tabor, who could provide valuable coverage depth to a team that has the talent up front to threaten their opponents' QBs.
The Lions' rush defense was good against opponents' left tackle-to-left guard combinations while lacking punch from the center through the right tackle. Again, the Lions will hope that investments along the defensive line will even this performance out in 2019, but on a team that ranked 10th in Rush Yards Against per game and 16th in Rush Yards Against per Attempt during 2018, this investment seems misplaced given that their success in these regards led to a 6-10 record and last place in the NFC North. With that said, if stopping the run is a key priority for Detroit's coaching staff, they've got the players on their roster to build on last year's positive momentum in this regard.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 8/28/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 8/28/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/DET; Retrieved 8/28/2019.