brownalytics
CLEVELANd (0-0)
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VS
​TENNESSEE (0-0)
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8th 2019
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CLEVELAND, OH
​The Tennessee Titans come to town in week one looking to spoil the opener to the most anticipated Browns season since the late 1980's. They bring with them a run-first offensive scheme powered by bruising Alabama product Derrick Henry and a defense that was one of the best in the NFL at limiting big passing plays and keeping opponents off the scoreboard in 2018. The Titans also boast a revamped receiving corps and reliable TE's in Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith who, if involved frequently enough, could cause problems for a Browns team that will be tempted to load up to stop the run on defense. A noted absence for the Titans in week one will be long-time starting LT Taylor Lewan who would normally protect QB Marcus Mariota from the likes of Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon. It will be the task of new Browns DC Steve Wilks to ensure that Lewan's absence is felt by rotating along the defensive line in an attempt to confuse protections and disguise pressure while relying on the Browns' playmakers in coverage to take away Marcus Mariota's comfort zone in passing to short and mid level target depths. Brownalytics's week one projections have the Browns as the most likely winners in this game, by a projected final score of 23-18.
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. First up to discuss the Titans is friend of the blog S.G. Grewal!
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The Tennessee Titans start the 2019 season with a road matchup against the new look Cleveland Browns with both teams looking to improve upon mediocre 2018 campaigns that ended without postseason berths. Former Titans OC Matt LaFleur is now the new Packers HC, so the Titans look to first-time OC/Play-Caller Arthur Smith to infuse some creativity into what was a predictable offense last season. The team's 8-8 finish last year was a mixture of a strong defense and inconsistent quarterback play. The hope is that by adding veteran guard Roger Saffold, sure-handed WR Adam Humphries, and rookie WR A.J Brown, QB Marcus Mariota can improve on last year's performance. As Mariota finishes the last year of his rookie deal, all eyes will be on whether the 25 year old signal-caller can stay healthy for the duration of the season.
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Despite ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in most offensive metrics, the 2018 Titans offense did a good job minimizing turnovers and leaning on RB Derrick Henry (PFF Grade 87, 2nd in NFL). A key area to observe will be how first time OC Arthur Smith handles play-calling duties as the former TE's coach is a bit of an unknown commodity in that capacity leaguewide. With Mariota's health being a priority, Smith may choose to employ a run-first offense that prioritizes short passes and check-downs against Cleveland this Sunday. The Titans pass game left a lot to be desired in 2018 and there was a sense that they were held back by the offensive line's regression in pass-blocking, which contributed to the team finishing 29th in the NFL in pass yards per game. This regression was harder to watch when considering the fact that Mariota was actually fairly efficient (by EPA) on mid and deep passes when he was given the opportunity to let these opportunities develop. Breakdowns in protection prevented Mariota from taking more deep shots down the field and dictated the swing and short passes the Titans became known for, limiting the offense's overall output in 2018. Against the Browns, expect this trend to continue as Olivier Vernon (T-30, 46 Pressures) and Myles Garrett are capable of creating enough havoc to convince the Titans to employ a conservative game-plan.
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An advantage the Titans may have against new DC Steve Wilks's 4-2-5 base nickel defense is that they ran 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE's) 26% of the time in 2018, good for 4th most in the NFL. The benefit of this personnel grouping versus the Browns defense is that the Titans can employ two athletic tight ends in Jonnu Smith and Delanie Walker who are both capable blockers and receivers. This and the fact that OC Arthur Smith was the Titans' Tight Ends coach from 2014-2018 could signal that Walker is primed to play a major role on Sunday. Considering the pass-blocking disadvantage in this matchup, the Titans' best chance to win this game will likely be predicated on slowing down the pace of play, employing 12 personnel to take advantage of Cleveland's anticipated base nickel defense through play-action passes to TE's, and hoping Henry can build on his strong finish to last season.
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- Titans pregame matchup analysis contributed by S.G. Grewal (Twitter: @VegasGrewal)
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Offensive Ranks:
The Titans' offense in 2018 was pretty lackluster overall, ranking top 25% in the league in only Rush Yards per Game and ranking bottom 25% in the league in significant statistical categories like point scoring (both per play and per game) and passing yardage. While rushing the ball seems to be in this team's DNA, they weren't particularly good at it overall, ranking dead middle of the league in Rushing YPA. This emphasis on the run does seem to serve a particular purpose though; the team ranked 29th league wide in sack rate allowed and giving the ball to Derrick Henry does eliminate the possibility of giving up more sacks, so there's that. In sum - assuming no drastic changes from Mike Vrabel (and his newly promoted OC Arthur Smith) in year two of his HC tenure - the Browns should expect a run-heavy, short-pass oriented attack from Tennessee on Sunday, especially given the absence of stalwart starting LT Taylor Lewan.
Defensive Ranks:
Similar to the Browns matchup against Washington in the preseason, the strengths of Tennessee's team in 2018 were on the defensive side of the football. Notably, the Titans ranked top-3 in the league at not allowing points and top 25% in limiting the effectiveness of opponents' passing attacks. On the other side of the coin, Tennessee's weaknesses were few and somewhat insignificant; they allowed a high percentage of FG attempts to be converted (likely speaking more to strong red zone defense than any real weakness) and didn't turn their opponents over very frequently in 2018 (high variance business that can't be relied upon from week-to-week). The Browns oft-maligned offensive line will have to contend with a 3-4 base front that swaps pass rushing LB Cameron Wake for the retired Brian Orakpo, adds DE Brent Urban from Baltimore and returns the very effective Jurrell Casey who the Titans hope will be able to get after the QB more frequently than in 2018. The coverage group in Tennessee is excellent between starting CB's Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan, starting Safeties Kenny Vaccaro and Kevin Byard, and quality depth in Kamalei Correa, Adoree Jackson and rookie Amani Hooker. It'll be up to the brain trust of Freddie, Todd and Baker to scheme their play makers open early in plays in order to ensure that the Browns O-Line isn't forced to hold up too long against a revamped Titans front that will be hungry to make an impact against the much-hyped Browns offensive unit.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
Vrabel's 2018 Titans were a classic run-pass-pass team in game neutral situations during year one of his tenure. This much could probably have been inferred from the league rankings breakdown included above, but, adding further context, the Titans ranked 29th in the league in first down passing frequency in neutral game situations last year. Possessing the ball, keeping your QB clean from hits and putting your O-Line in run-block vs. pass-block posture is understandable strategically, but Vrabel's offense was hardly an example of the less predictable early down playcalling that progressive teams have gravitated towards as of late.
In the red zone, the Titans became significantly more conservative, running the ball about 5% more on first down and 9% more on second down as the field shortened for their offense in these situations. Again, mitigating the risk of a high leverage turnover by running the football is understandable in certain circumstances, but such risk averse play calling could also have resulted in limited gains (in the form of scoring points) during Vrabel's first year in charge of this Tennessee team.
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Offensive Efficiency:
Looking at Tennessee's passing EPA to various target areas of the field, we see that Marcus Mariota and company actually created above-average gains when targeting players downfield in 2018. The problem is that they didn't target these areas very frequently. Tennessee's per attempt depth of target skewed heavily toward passes short of 10 yards downfield in 2018, breaking down as follows: Mid (25%) + Deep Targets (10%) = 35% of attempts, Short (40%) + Swing Targets (25%) = 65% of attempts.
So what does this mean for the Browns in Week 1? If the past is any indicator of the future, the Titans' primary target down field will be Corey Davis, followed by Tajae Sharpe and the wildcard on Sunday will be rookie A.J. Brown, who enters the fold in the Titans offense as a 2nd round draft pick and is currently running with the second string on the depth chart. Also added to the picture is slot specialist Adam Humphries who, in his career with Tampa Bay, made his money as a very efficient receiver on routes 5 to 10 yards downfield and should be a potent weapon in that area of the field for Mariota to target in situations that warrant quick, short throws this week.
We've already discussed the fact that the 2018 Tennessee Titans ran the ball frequently, but did they do it successfully? To an extent they did, most notably to the outside of their left end position where they achieved success rates well in excess of 50% over the course of the season. Again, this level of effectiveness could be hamstrung by the exclusion of Lewan from Sunday's game, possibly depriving the Titans of this particular area of offensive strength. The weakness in Tennessee's rushing attack would appear to be through the middle of their line, where only average EPA generation and significantly lower success rates were achieved during the 2018 season, but - as guest analyst S.G. Grewald pointed out - Tennessee will hope that the acquisition of G Roger Saffold during the offseason can bolster their inside run success. Similar to their matchup with the LA Chargers last season, the Browns should be on the lookout for the outside run on Sunday, particularly in short-yardage situations, when teams typically try to gain yardage through the middle of their formations.
​Defensive Efficiency:
Tennessee's pass defense was weakest down the left side of the field in 2018, allowing above-average EPA to all depths of target beyond the line of scrimmage there. Notably Tennessee was worse to high value target areas at mid and deep target depths down the middle of the field. The Titans' strength, however was to the right side of the field where their pass defense surrendered only below-average to average EPA on targets to these areas. According to our most recent reads of the Titans' defense, the Browns should work to target the seams and right side of Tennessee's defense this Sunday while selectively picking on the left side of their coverage only when matchups favor taking a shot in that direction.
The Titans' rushing defense gave up average to above-average EPA per rush across the board in 2018 and should hope to limit opponents' success on the ground heading into 2019. If the Browns find themselves ahead on the scoreboard, keeping Tennessee's propensity to leak EPA on run plays in mind may enable Cleveland's coaching staff to press their advantage through the run while controlling the tempo of the game.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 9/5/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 9/5/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/TEN; Retrieved 9/5/2019.
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4. Grewal, S.G.. "Titans-Browns Preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 9/5/2019. E-Mail.