brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-6)
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VS
​Buffalo (6-2)
sunday, NOVEMBER 10th 2019
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Cleveland, Oh
​Here we are Browns fans. We've arrived at that point in the season when it's time for the team we love to signal whether us fans are rooting for any tangible success on the field in this current season, or whether we should break our draft notebooks out and start getting familiar with college talent while wishing the Browns well and secretly rooting for results that maximize their draft position in April. At least this inflection point didn't come in early October though, right?
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All kidding aside, the Browns enter their Week 10 tilt with Buffalo in need of a spark, followed by a lengthy win streak and a few outside results to go their way if they are going to make any kind of run at the playoffs in 2019. There are reasons to believe: the Browns have a favorable schedule, the talent to turn things around and the recent experience of their 2018 season, where they rebounded from a 2-5-1 start to finish with 5 wins out of their last 8 games on their side. Beyond those narratives however, there's not much belief to cling to in Cleveland, especially after the Browns' dismal defeat at the hands of a floundering Broncos team last Sunday in a game where the Browns kicked seemingly dozens of field goals and still lost. Winning cures all, however, and the Browns have an opportunity to get their first win since week four in an important home matchup against fellow Lake Erie dwellers in the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come into the week riding high at 6-2 and well positioned to make a strong push for an AFC playoff position. Their offense is mediocre, but their defense has been fantastic on the year, which - combined with the Browns' miserable offensive output - results in the pregame projection below. To say that a Browns win on Sunday would be a Herculean task is hyperbole, but to say that it's fairly unlikely would be an accurate characterization. In brownalytics's pregame projections, the Bills get the victory in 72.1% of 5000 simulations, by an average score of 30-12.
Of course, below we'll dive into a few key findings that could help to avoid this outcome, including:
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- The Browns' strong pass rush against a Bills team that has done a below-average job of limiting sacks
- The Browns' strong rushing attack, which adds RB Kareem Hunt, against a mediocre Bills rushing defense
- The Browns' potential advantages in targeting passes at areas >10yd downfield against a strong Buffalo pass defense
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But first, some thoughts from the opposing side of our week six matchup with Seattle...
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the Bills is @BufBillsStats!
The Bills are taking the short trip down I-90 for a Lake Erie match-up with the Cleveland Browns. With the Bills at 6-2, and the Browns at 2-6, both seasons have been surprising for each team’s respective fanbases, but for different reasons. The Bills have been a benefactor of facing an easy schedule, combined with some top-tier defensive play. Meanwhile the offense has picked up from being historically bad for a large part of 2018 to just below-average in 2019, and that has been enough to win games so far.
THE OFFENSE: As with any offense, it starts with the quarterback, and for the Bills that happens to be controversial QB prospect Josh Allen. In 2018 Allen was not a good thrower, but he started making up for it with great scrambling, and he was actually the league leader in terms of EPA/carry. However his passing left a lot to be desired, as he checked in with the second worst CPOE (-7.7), per NextGen Stats. Now in 2019 he has picked up his CPOE to a more manageable -1.8, but he still has yet to complete a pass traveling further than 30 yards downfield. Additionally his ADoT has come down from a league high 11, to a more sustainable 9.2. While Allen still has not been a great passer, the Bills have been one of the most pass heavy teams in 2019, which has helped to keep the offense from run-run-pass on third and long-punt.
Off season addition John Brown has been by far Allen’s go to target as their skill sets have complemented one another well and they have been able to establish good chemistry on the field. Other 2019 new comer is slot WR Cole Beasley, who has scored TDs in the last three games coming into week ten. He is a useful safety valve and on 3rd&6 or less situations has been great at facilitating conversions. The run game has been one of the best in the league on an EPA/carry basis. This is due in part to good situational usage of play calls, a revamped offensive line, and diverse play design. The immortal Frank Gore, Devin Singletary, Allen, and even WR Isaiah McKenzie have all been key factors to the team's success on the ground.
THE DEFENSE: Through the first 5 games of the season our defense was one of the top-3 in the league, even holding arch-nemesis Tom Brady to his worst game on an AY/A basis since 2006. However, since coming out of the bye, the defense has not looked quite as dominant. Ryan Fitzpatrick and the then-winless Dolphins put up 21 points on these Bills, and it could have been worse had Tre White not come up with a key goal line interception. The Bills then allowed a season-high 31 points to the Eagles in a game characterized by harsh wind conditions where the defense had trouble stopping Philly's run and screen games. While Buffal did hold the Redskins and rookie QB Dwayne Haskins to 9 points, AP ran for over 100 yards in the first half before the D clamped down and held him to less than 10 yards in the second half. However if the Bills allow Nick Chubb into the open field the way they did with AP in the first half, it could be a long day for the defense. Overall Football Outsiders has the Bills pegged with the 5th best pass defense in the league on the strength of a great young secondary featuring Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer along side premier 3rd year CB Tre White. The run defense, however, is ranked only 30th and while the Bills sport a modern defense built to stop the pass (which they have done an incredible job at), a run defense this porous can be an issue even if stopping the pass is more important overall.
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​​- Bills pregame matchup analysis contributed by Jeff Gould (Twitter: @BufBillsStats)
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
For a third-straight week, the Browns take on an opponent whose offense can be considered the weakness of their team. Overall, the Bills rank 23rd in the league by Offensive EPA per Play, with the positive results in their possessions being driven by success in the run game (24th EPA per Pass/6th EPA per Run). These stats can be a bit misleading for teams with mobile quarterbacks, however. Factoring out Bills rushing attempts where Josh Allen is the ball carrier, they rank 11th in EPA per rush, dropping them eight spots and meaning that much of their rushing success comes from out of structure plays. Regardless, the Browns will need to counter a Bills rushing attack whose success shows up in conventional stats as well, where the Bills are ranked 11th in the league in both rush yards per game and rush yards per attempt. Weaknesses to note center on the passing game, where Buffalo ranks bottom quarter in the league in raw Passer Rating (24th) and Completion Percent (27th) as well as near the bottom quarter in the league in passing efficiency (22nd Pass Yards per Attempt/26th Pass Yards per Game).
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Cleveland's defense has faded over the past few weeks by overall metrics after a fairly strong (albeit, never dominant) start to the season. Currently, the Browns rank 21st in the league by EPA allowed per play, indicating that the Bills 23rd ranked offense should be a a matchup that the Browns' defense can tilt in their favor by playing disciplined defensive football and waiting for the Bills to make a mistake or two (Buffalo ranks 20th in Turnovers Allowed). The Browns' principle advantage this week lies, again, in their strong pass rush (6th, Sack Rate) against a Bills offense that ranks near the bottom quarter of the league in Sack Rate Allowed (23rd). Another advantage to note is the Browns' ability to stop opponents on 3rd Down Conversion attempts, where they rank 5th in the league (as compared to Buffalo's 23rd-ranked offensive 3rd Down Conversion rate). As we saw in games against Denver last week, and San Francisco and Seattle earlier this season, the Browns' subpar run defense (29th Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt/30th Rush Yards Allowed per Game) shapes up to be their most concerning weakness again this week, especially against a team that has run the ball as successfully as the Bills have this season.
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Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
For the third consecutive week, the Browns face a team whose defense is the marked strength of their opponent's game and, for those of you who may not have been paying close attention, this has not worked out well for the Browns of late. Buffalo enters the week ranking 3rd in the league in EPA Allowed per Play, with the strength of their defense being against opponents' passing games (3rd EPA Allowed per Pass/27th EPA Allowed per Rush). The Bills have played excellent defense overall by a few key stats this season; they're 3rd in scoring efficiency allowed, 3rd in passing efficiency allowed and 5th in completion percentage allowed, just to name a few. Even the Bills' weaknesses thus far into the season don't rank them any lower than 19th in the league as a unit, which is impressive.
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To pull out a win on Sunday against another great defensive opponent, the Browns will need to take advantage of mediocre returns in Buffalo's Rush Defense (19th Rush Yards per Attempt) and in their ability to sack opposing QB's (17th Sack Rate). That'll be no easy task as the Browns offense ranks near the very bottom of the league in many important offensive stats, including ranking 29th in EPA per play, with only the Jets, Miami and Washington running worse overall offenses than Cleveland has this season. Despite this, relative strength in the rushing game (16th EPA per Rush vs. BUF 27th EPA Allowed per Rush) could be a notable advantage for Cleveland if they choose to focus on that aspect of their offense, especially with Kareem Hunt returning from suspension this week. The rest of the offense, though, backs up the EPA-driven view of Cleveland as a very bad offense. The Browns are just about bottom quarter in the league in scoring efficiency (22nd Points per Play), 29th in 3rd Down Conversion Rate, 28th in Turnovers Allowed and 31st - nearly dead last - in Completion Percentage despite having Baker Mayfield throwing the ball to Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham. As we're all aware, the passing offense has been a mess this season, and it's not likely to offer much of an advantage for the Browns in their matchup with Buffalo this week.
Playcalling Tendencies:
Despite all of their success running the football, Sean McDermott is managing an interesting pass-first, especially on first down, offense in Buffalo. The Bills are well within top third of the league in pass percent on 1st down drop into the middle third of the league in pass percentage (possibly out of lack of necessity) on 2nd and 3rd downs. This is a stark departure from traditional football dogma, which would suggest that running on first down and letting down and distance dictate run/pass play calling on subsequent attempts is the right way to run an offense.
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On those ever-important 3rd down conversion tries, the Bills are mostly a run-first team on 3rd down up to about 2.5 yards to go. They evidence about an even 50/50 split between the run and pass from 2.5 to about 5 yards to go, after which they become more heavily pass-first until the distance suggests that running the ball is a better way to catch opponents off guard.
In the red zone, the Bills' tendencies remain steady, placing in the top third of the league in first down pass percent and then bottom third in the league in pass percentage on 2nd and 3rd downs.
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Offensive Efficiency:
​So far this season, Josh Allen has been best passing to his left, gaining above-average to good EPA per Dropback to most target areas in the middle or left of the field. A major exception, however, is deep middle, where he has struggled on nine attempts in 2019. Allen has been uneven to the right side of the field, which is a possible advantage for the Browns as Denzel Ward typically lines up on the offense's right. For a second week in a row, the Browns will need to ensure that their opponent doesn't feast on target areas towards the middle-to-left of field, as the Browns defense has allowed above average-efficiency to most of these areas in 2019. Of particular concern based on the charts above will be the Browns' ability to cover on middle targets from 0-19yd DoT while also maintaining the ability slow down the Bills' strong rushing attack.
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​ In terms of target tendencies, John Brown and Zay Jones appear to be the Bills' best downfield targets, averaging 14'ish air yards per target so far this season. Cole Beasley, the team's most frequently targeted receiver, is used mostly at mid range (ADoT approx 7yd) while RB T.J. Yeldon and WR Isaiah McKenzie tend to be targeted in areas short of 5yd DoT.
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The Browns' defensive matchup against the Bills' rushing attack is an interesting one, pitting strength vs. strength in terms of rushing directions thus far this season. For their part,the Bills have rushed best to the left side of their line, but the Browns have defended best against attempts to the left side of their opponents' lines. To the right side of their line, the Bills have been just about average, while the Browns have given up above-average EPA to their opponents on rushes to the right side of their formations. Expect the Bills to test the Browns ability to stop runs to the right early and often on Saturday.
​Defensive Efficiency:
The weakness in the Bills' passing defense is up the middle, particularly at 10yd+ DoT while they appear to be strongest at 0-10yd DoT across the field. Cleveland's passing offense has been good at 10-20yd DoT up the middle, and this would seem to be an area that they may be able to exploit on Sunday. The problem with this is that they've only thrown there nine total times all year long, combining with other trends to indicate either a lack of interest in or a lack of ability to attack the middle portion of the field through the air. Regardless of how they do it, the charts above suggest that the Browns will need to push the ball further downfield than they have so far this season in order to find success against Buffalo's pass defense.
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In the matchup between the Browns' rushing game and the Bills' rushing defense, the Browns' best advantage appears to be in running the ball left at a Bills front that has given up above average EPA to opponent runs in that direction. Conversely, the Bills have given up average-to-good EPA on runs to the right, which is the direction in which the Browns have struggled to run with consistent success. Cleveland would appear to be wise in directing the majority of their rushing attempts at the left side of the Bills' defensive front this upcoming Sunday.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 11/7/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 11/7/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BUF; Retrieved 11/7/2019.
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4. Jeff Gould. "Bills - Browns preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 11/7/2019. E-Mail.
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