brownalytics
CLEVELANd (3-6)
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VS
​pittsburgh (5-4)
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14th 2019
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cleveland, oh
​Befitting a proper November AFC North matchup, the first meeting of the season between Cleveland and Pittsburgh shapes up to be a chilly, defensive slugfest that would make Clay Matthews or Jack Lambert proud. The Steelers enter the game riding a four game win streak that has vaulted them into the AFC playoff picture while the Browns need to go on a run of their own to revive a season that began with more hope than any in recent memory. Statistically speaking, the Steelers have the clear advantage over the Browns overall, with their excellent defense's matchup against a sub-par Browns offense being the most pronounced difference between these rivals at this point of the season. To avoid a loss that would push their season to the brink, the Browns will need to put the best elements of their last two outings together with better scoring efficiency in order to put pressure on a Pittsburgh offense that has struggled to move the ball at times this year. According to brownalytics's win probability model, it's a steep climb for the home team, as they're projected to lose in roughly 67% of simulations by an average scoreline of about 29-14.
Of course, below we'll dive into a few key findings that could help to avoid this outcome, including:
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- The Browns passing offense figures to be their best route to attacking a stout Steelers defense, particularly at 10+yd Depth of Target (DoT)
- Running selectively, particularly off Left End and Right Guard, could give the Browns their best opportunity to beat the Steelers on the ground
- The Browns' defensive coverage will need to contend with a quick-throwing offense - similar to Denver's - whose Avg. Depth of Target (ADoT) checks in at 7.5yd (21st)
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
Pittsburgh's offense ranks as one might expect given that their stalwart starting QB was injured for the season early on in the campaign. By EPA per play the Steelers check in at 26th in the league (-0.054 EPA/play) with their strongest asset being the Pass game, which is marginally positive on average (Pass EPA/play 0.001; 22nd). Perhaps surprisingly, the Steelers sport the worst rushing attack in the league by EPA per play, clocking -0.178 EPA per rush so far this season, which should be music to Steve Wilks's ears after squaring off against the #1 (BAL), #5 (BUF) and #9 (DEN) rushing EPA offenses in the league so far. The Steelers have done an outstanding job of keeping their young QB(s) free from sacks (#2 Sack Rate Allowed) and pressures (#2 Pressure Rate* Allowed; 12.9%) despite significant turnover in their offense between this season and last. Switching to boxscore statistics, the point borne out by EPA is underscored; Pittsburgh has had a tough time moving the ball consistently this season as they come in ranked 27th in Yards per Play, 25th in Pass Yards per Attempt and 28th in Rush Yards per Attempt. The Browns' defense needs to come prepared to play disciplined football to heighten their advantage against a below-average offense, and Cleveland fans should come prepared on Thursday night to exacerbate Pittsburgh's weaknesses all evening long.
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Cleveland's biggest edge in this game is in the matchup of the Browns' defense against the Steelers' offense, but it's not as big of an advantage statistically as one might imagine just looking at the two teams' current depth charts. By EPA allowed per play, the Browns' defense checks in at 20th in the league, giving up 0.034 EPA per play to opponents. They have been best against the pass (Pass EPA/play Allowed = 0.068, 16th) and frustratingly bad against the run (Rush EPA/play Allowed = 0.033, 25th) considering the investments made along the defensive front in the offseason. The Browns defense's best attributes are in sacking (6th Sack Rate) and pressuring (7th Pressure Rate*) opposing QB's, but this skill will be tested against a Steelers offense that has excelled at keeping their QBs clean so far this season. The Browns have also been great on 3rd Downs, ranking 6th in the league in 3rd Down conversions allowed. As mentioned previously, the Browns' primary defensive weakness is against opponents' rushing attacks, where they rank 28th in Rush Yards allowed per Attempt. If they're unable to stop a Steelers' offense that hasn't run effectively this season, then it's time to be very concerned about this defense and the system they're playing in. The Browns will need a strong game out of their coverage unit and a disciplined effort out of their linemen and linebackers to limit opportunities for an offense that hasn't wowed with its ability to create their own opportunities so far this season.
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*Pressure Rate calculated as: Pressure Rate = (Sacks + QB Hits)/QB Dropbacks
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
Next up in line on the Browns' own midseason murderers row of defensive matchups are the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, who come to Cleveland on Thursday sporting the 3rd best defense in the NFL by EPA allowed per play (EPA/pp = -0.081). Their most notable strength is against the rush, where they're allowing a paltry -0.196 EPA per Rush (2nd) to opponents and their results against the pass aren't much worse, where they average -0.057 EPA per Pass (5th). Pittsburgh's defense has benefitted from opponents' turnovers (2nd Turnovers Forced per Game), they've been great at generating sacks (4th Sack Rate), and, as noted by EPA per Rush, have done a good job of stopping the run (7th Rush Yards per Att.); as a result of these strengths, they have allowed the 8th lowest Points per Play in the league. There are no glaring statistical weaknesses in this defense, but those worth noting relate to allowing first downs, where the Steelers rank 20th in total First Downs allowed per game and 14th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed. Oddly, for all of their defensive success, the Steelers rank 20th in the league in EPA allowed per play on third down (3d EPA/pp = 0.084), meaning that if the Browns can stay on schedule and capitalize on high leverage downs they'll stand a chance of keeping Pittsburgh's defense on the field and off balance.
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​As most fans are aware, the Browns' offense has been a horror show of penalties, dropped passes, underuse of players and just plain bad luck so far this season. The stats are correspondingly poor: Overall EPA/play = -0.059 (27th), Pass EPA/play = -0.135 (29th) and Rush EPA/play = -0.043 (15th). The Steelers seem poised and capable of taking away the Browns' best asset, running the football (Rank 2nd Yards per Attempt), this week, so we shouldn't expect to see the big holes and long runs that Nick Chubb has been able to break off for the past few games. Instead, the Browns should focus their attack through the air against Pittsburgh, throwing on early downs to maximize efficiency and to open things up for the run later in series when down and distance based tendencies are less clear. The Browns have the talent to exploit Pittsburgh's coverage where it's at its weakest (10+yd DoT, covered below) and this is the matchup where, for all of the speed bumps in the 2019 Browns's road so far, they need to come together and show that this team can turn expectations into results.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
Pittsburgh's offense passes with about average frequency on first downs, but is in the top third of the NFL in second down pass frequency. This is notable because the Steelers' average 7.68 yards to go on 2nd down is actually 8th lowest in the league through 10 weeks, ranking them just ahead of highly regarded offenses in Houston and New Orleans (9th and 10th, respectively). The point here is that the Steelers' tendency to pass on 2nd down isn't likely due to having been stuffed for a loss on first down, it's a strategic decision.
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The Steelers' third down playcalling falls in line with league averages in terms of run/pass percentages and their run/pass decisions on these downs are distributed similarly to many teams in the NFL based on the distance they face to the sticks. Pittsburgh is a fairly-heavy run-first offense up to about 2.5 yards to go, they evidence about a 50-50 split from 2.5 to 4 yards to go, and beyond 4 yards out they tend to pass the ball.
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The Steelers break their open-field tendencies on first downs in the red zone, passing with frequency that would place them in the top third of the league in these situations. They fall back in line with league averages, placing within the middle third of the leage in pass rate on 2nd downs, and they fall into the bottom third of the league in pass rate on third downs in the red zone.
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Offensive Efficiency:
Pittsburgh has run a fairly conservative passing offense this season, which is to be expected given their loss of former Miami Redhawk QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers have thrown short of 10yd downfield on approximately 69% of all attempts thus far this season, so Cleveland shouldn't be surprised to see a lot of the Backs and Tight Ends in passing situations this week.
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Cleveland will also need to remain focused on that pesky middle-field target area at 10-20yd DoT again; they have been victimized in this area of the field so far this year and this matchup sets up well for the Steelers to attempt to exploit the Browns weakness in covering the middle of the field. The Browns' results on the outside of their coverage to the right side of the field has improved to a degree with (presumably) the return of Denzel Ward, but results have been mixed on the left side of the field, exposing another possible opportunity for the Steelers to exploit through the air.
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Diontae Johnson, Juju Smith-Shuster and James Washington share the load on deep targets, although Johnson has been far and away the most valuable contributor by total EPA so far this year. Predictably, Tight Ends Nick Vanett and Vance McDonald are typically targeted in the 5-7 yd range, with Vannett being targeted marginally further downfield than McDonald. Of note, Pittsburgh gets very good production from James Conner and Jalen Samuels on passes out of the backfield, with each producing positive EPA over a relatively high number of targets so far this season.
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On the ground, the Steelers are at their best rushing to the outside of their formation, gaining above-average EPA on runs off end to the left and off tackle to the right. The Browns do well against runs off tackle to the left, but they haven't fared well elsewhere so far this season. With that said, they have played some of the best rushing teams in the league of late, so a matchup with the worst team in the league by rushing efficiency may be what Cleveland needs to gain some confidence in their collective ability to stop the run.
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​Defensive Efficiency:
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For the second straight week, attacking the opponent at 10+yd DoT seems to be the best way-forward for this Browns offense, as the Steelers have given up positive EPA on average to all target areas "beyond the sticks" this season. Once again the middle of the field at 10-20yd DoT looks like a potential advantage for the Cleveland passing game, but they have shown little interest in targeting this area frequently this year. Luckily the Steelers also appear weak to the left side of the field at 10-20yd DoT as well, an area the Cleveland has put a bit more emphasis on attacking.
Support for the idea of throwing deeper against Pittsburgh is further illustrated below, where it's apparent that, compared to the rest of the NFL, the Steelers have allowed a greater proportion of successful plays at approximately 8-18yd downfield than they have on shorter passes.
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Cleveland's best bet for success on the ground this week appears to be in rushing wide (off end) to the left of their offensive formation and rushing short (off guard) to the right of their offensive formation. The Steelers have given up above average EPA to these gaps so far this season and the Browns have had success, particularly after the insertion of Wyatt Teller into the starting lineup, to both of these gaps as well. Against Buffalo last week, the Browns averaged postitive EPA/rush through the right side B-gap enroute to a strong day rushing the ball overall (despite that slight hiccup near the goal line).
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Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 11/12/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 11/12/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/PIT; Retrieved 11/12/2019.