brownalytics
CLEVELANd (4-6)
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VS
​miami (2-8)
sunday, NOVEMBER 24th 2019
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cleveland, oh
The 2019 #FishTank tour comes to Cleveland this week in a game that will favor the Browns for a number of notable reasons. While the Browns’ offense has been bad, Miami’s has been worse and their defense has been just as ineffective while Cleveland’s has had a resurgence in recent weeks, climbing into the top 10 in the league by certain advanced metrics. Of course, the Browns will be without key contributors on the defensive side of the ball this week, and they’ll need increased focus on stopping the run to ensure that Miami isn’t able to leverage Cleveland’s defensive Achilles heel in order to cast doubt upon what should be a Browns’ victory. According to brownalytics’s statistical projection of this matchup, Cleveland is favored in roughly 73% of simulations and by an average score of 26 to 7.
Keys to Victory:
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- Browns up-trending passing game needs to take early advantage of Miami’s awful pass defense; the Browns should start fast and get on the scoreboard early while building on the positive strides that Baker and the pass game have made over the past few weeks.
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- Cleveland’s already bad and doubly weakened run defense needs to show up big against Miami’s rushing offense; if the Browns let Miami hang around on the scoreboard, enabling their offense to run the ball with frequency, Cleveland could be in for a long day or even an upset.
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- Discipline is key – don’t beat yourselves! Penalties have been a huge story in the Browns’ 2019 season; not so for the Dolphins. Starting with simple penalty counts, Miami is best in the league at minimizing penalties (55 penalties, 1st), while Cleveland ranks 30th in this regard with 87 penalties taken. Furthermore, by the advanced play-level metric ‘win probability added’, Cleveland ranks 28th in the league at -234% win probability lost due to penalties, while Miami ranks 2nd in the league with only -124.2% win probability lost due to penalties. Part of this is because Miami hasn’t had much win probability to lose in the first place this season, but the larger point is that they likely won’t beat themselves, so the Browns need to follow suit and ensure that they play a disciplined game on Sunday.
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
Overall, Miami’s offense is what you’d expect from a team whose primary strategic objective is similar to that of the 2017 Browns, compile cap and draft assets while building for the future. By total Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play, Miami ranks 30th in the league, posting -0.131 EPA per play on offense. The run game qualifies as the strength of their offense, but just barely. Miami has posted -0.150 EPA per rush on the year (29th), while their passing offense has dragged the unit by achieving -0.223 EPA per pass (32nd). Some of this can be explained by the situations that Miami’s offense has been put in so far this season, namely, that their offense has routinely faced pass-first situations while being blown out by opponents on the scoreboard week in and week out. Miami ranks 4th highest in the league in total plays run with less than 20% in-game win probability, backing up that notion that their offense’s results are colored by the dire situations they’ve faced. In terms of the Dolphins’ box score statistical rankings, there’s not a positive story in sight, as they rank bottom quarter in the league in 17 of the 18 stats presented above.
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The Browns’ defense will be a tough group to characterize this week given the recent suspensions to key contributors along the front in Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi. The loss of these players comes at a point in the season where Cleveland’s defense had been experiencing a resurgence of sorts, finding their way back into the top ten by total EPA per Play allowed (9th, -0.009 EPA per Play) entering week twelve after ranking 21st by the same measure heading into their matchup with Buffalo. Reassuringly, this resurgence seems to have been led by the pass defense, which checks in at 7th in the league by EPA allowed per pass at -0.026, a nine-spot jump after ranking 16th by the same measure prior to their dismantling of Pittsburgh last Thursday (four picks in a dominant effort can help). On the negative side, the rush defense continues to be the Browns’ primary defensive issue, ranking 23rd in the league by EPA allowed per rush (0.010) and having consistently placed within the bottom ten or twelve teams in the league by this metric nearly all season. This trend flows through to box score statistics, where the Browns rank 28th in Rush Yards Allowed per Attempt, and this issue should be exacerbated given the key absences listed above. Given this and combined with the fact that the Dolphins have run the ball more effectively than they have passed it so far this season, the clearest path to Miami upsetting the Browns this weekend lies with their ability to frustrate the Cleveland defense with big gains on the ground, a matchup that the Cleveland coaching staff will need to account for heading into Sunday.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The Dolphins defense comes to Cleveland, much like the Offense, having a statistically poor season to date. Overall, they check in at 0.137 EPA allowed per play, ranking 31st in the league by that advanced measure. Their rushing defense is the better aspect of Miami’s game, but again, not by much. The Dolphins run defense allows 0.058 EPA per rush (27th) while their pass defense has been absolutely victimized through week eleven, allowing 0.306 EPA per pass and ranking 31st in the league. Given the assignment of starting safeties Reshad Jones and Bobby McCain to Injured Reserve earlier this week, the passing game sticks out prominently as the glaring weakness of this team. With Miami ranking bottom quarter in the league in 14 of 18 stats displayed above, box score statistics follow the assessments driven by the advanced metrics above and underscore the suggestion that this Miami group should not provide significant resistance to the Browns this week.
With all that said, Cleveland’s offense, in well-documented fashion, has significantly underachieved this season as they enter week twelve ranked 25th overall in EPA per play at -0.068. The Browns’ rushing game has been the stronger component of their game so far this year, clocking an EPA per rush rate of -0.061 (Rank: 18th) while their passing game has been just about as anemic as any in football, producing -0.118 EPA per pass and ranking 28th in the league. Luckily for Baker, Freddie and company, the visiting Dolphins bring with them one of the worst pass defenses in the league and should offer the Browns a significant opportunity to continue building on positive trends in the passing game that have been in evidence over the past few weeks. It’s for these reasons that, while this mid-November matchup on the lakefront (against a team from South Beach, no less) would seem to cry out for a run-heavy, ground and pound strategy to the casual fan, the Browns best opportunity from a broader perspective actually lies with the passing game. Cleveland is better served to play pass-first football early (like they did against Pittsburgh) in order to build the lead against a team that hasn’t shown an ability to successfully play “catch-up” this season, while ultimately relying on their strong rushing attack to close the game out when appropriate.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The Dolphins’ offensive attack follows NFL convention on first and fourth downs, passing the ball with frequencies that place them within the middle third of the league so far this season. Second and third downs are where the Dolphins break from leaguewide norms, passing more frequently than two-thirds of the league second downs, and less frequently than two-thirds of the league on third downs. On second downs, Miami seems to pass out of necessity, as their average distance to gain in neutral game script situations (win probability between 20% and 80%) is 8.7 yards, good for 31st in the NFL.
Third downs are where Miami’s offensive play calling gets interesting. On average and in neutral game script situations, the Dolphins have faced third downs requiring about 7.6 yards to gain for a first down in 2019 (26th in the NFL). Despite being in what many would consider to be a passing down (“3rd and 7” or “3rd and 8”), the Dolphins have actually run the ball a substantially greater amount of the time relative to the rest of the league (league average 3rd down pass rate is 82%). This dynamic is illustrated in the chart below, which shows that the Dolphins’ run rate, while less than their pass rate, doesn’t drop off of a proverbial cliff when their third down distance to go reaches about 4 yards, as it does with most other NFL teams. This begs the question: Has running when teams suspect the pass on third downs been working for Miami? Not especially. Their success rate when running on third down plays of four yards to go or more in neutral game script situations is only 25%, underachieving the league average success rate in these situations of 42%.
In the Red Zone, the Dolphins’ tendencies are entirely outside of league wide norms; on each down, they place in either the top or bottom third of the league by pass frequency. Miami passes less frequently than the majority of the rest of the league on both first, third and fourth downs, achieving a success rate of 39%, and ranking 28th in the league in these situations. On second downs, the Dolphins pass more frequently than the majority of the rest of league, achieving a success rate of 62% and ranking 2nd in the league in these situations. Clearly, the Browns need to watch out for 2nd down passes from Miami in the red zone, both in terms of their relative frequency and their effectiveness thus far in 2019.
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Offensive Efficiency:
Miami has generated positive EPA on passes at 10-20yd DoT across the field thus far in 2019, and has generated similarly positive results on passes deep down the left side of the field. Aside from these areas, Miami’s pass offense hasn’t been particularly effective on the season, posting negative EPA per attempt to all other target areas on the field.
The middle of the field, particularly from 10-20yd DoT, again appears to be the most dangerous area of the field for the Browns’ defense. Miami has averaged Good EPA to this area on the season despite a mostly ineffective offense otherwise. Cleveland’s linebackers will be tested in middle-field coverage and Morgan Burnett’s replacement at safety will likely be challenged to cover these areas frequently on Sunday.
Target wise, Devante Parker and Allen Hurns are the Dolphins’ most dangerous downfield threats among WR’s, while Jakeem Grant has averaged slightly negative EPA on his downfield targets to date. Albert Wilson is used primarily on short targets and hasn’t produced significant results so far this season. Mike Gesicki is Miami’s favorite target at Tight End, while Nick O’Leary had been the Dolphins’ most effective receiver off the line prior to his release at the end of October. Patrick Laird, an undrafted rookie RB, has been the Dolphins’ best target out of the backfield, posting positive EPA despite a relatively light share of targets. Kalen Ballage, the team’s current starter after the trade of Kenyan Drake and the release of Mark Walton, has not shown evidence of being dangerous in the passing game.
In the running game, the slight strength of the Miami’s offense, the Dolphins have had average to above average success across their line so far this year. Miami is best running over right end, and their best overall direction to run in is left, behind either guard or tackle. Miami hasn’t been good rushing into gaps behind center, right guard or right tackle, gaining negative EPA per rush to these gaps so far this season.
The Browns’ continued weakness against the run game could serve to even out a matchup that should be strongly in their favor this weekend. A particular weakness of concern on the Browns part is the fact that Cleveland has given up above average EPA per rush on attempts over right end, Miami’s best rushing lane so far this season. Steve Wilks and the Browns’ defense should be on the lookout for stretch plays to the right on Sunday whenever a tight end is deployed on that side of the formation. The only gap where Cleveland’s defense has been good against the run is off of left tackle, but Myles Garrett’s suspension will most likely degrade, if not entirely erase, this potential Cleveland advantage.
​Defensive Efficiency:
Miami’s pass defense has been horrible on the season, averaging positive EPA per attempt to all areas of the field through 10 games. Factor in their starting safeties being put on injured reserve this week and a talented, but underachieving, Browns offense shouldn’t be troubled to find success through the air this week. Miami’s pass defense has been best down the right side of the field, but that’s not saying much, as they still average roughly 0.123 EPA per Attempt to that side of the field.
Simply put, the Browns, Freddie Kitchens and Baker Mayfield would have no excuse if they were to put up a dud in the passing game against this Dolphins team. The Browns passing offense has been on an upward trajectory since their production bottomed-out against San Francisco in week five, and while beating up on a beleaguered opponent won’t be an accomplishment to hang their hats on, they should certainly look to continue building on their recent successes against the Dolphins on Sunday. Targeting passes to the middle and right side of the field at 10+ yards DoT, the areas where the Browns have had their best success this season, would seem to be a good plan for getting the offense moving early in the proceedings.
Miami has given up the elevated rushing success to opponents over each Tight End this season so far, averaging roughly 0.3 EPA and 6 yards per opponent’s rush to these gaps. Miami has done well at limiting opponents to only average gains on off-tackle runs however, so the Browns would be smart to keep longer developing outside run plays directed to the side of the line with Tight End help against the Dolphins.
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When the Browns do decide to rush the ball on Sunday, their most pronounced advantage appears to be over left end, where the Dolphins have surrendered above average EPA per Rush and the Browns have gained similarly. Despite the Browns not having found notable success rushing up the middle so far this season, Cleveland should test the Miami defense up the middle as well on Sunday as Miami has given up above average EPA per rush behind both opposing Centers and Guards on the season.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 11/21/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 11/21/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/MIA; Retrieved 11/21/2019.
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