brownalytics
CLEVELANd (5-6)
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VS
​PiTTSBURGH (6-5)
sunday, DECEMBER 1ST 2019
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PITTSBURGH, PA
The Browns head to Pittsburgh in what feels like their tenth-straight “pivotal” game of the season. This week, Cleveland will need to overcome decades of domination at the hands of their rival, a defense absent their most impactful playmaker, and a likely hostile environment to head back home with a win. According to brownalytics’s projections, the Steelers take this critical AFC matchup in roughly 56% of simulations, and by the frustratingly close score line of 24-19.
Below, Brownalytics breaks down key tendencies and efficiencies that can help the Browns to avoid this outcome on Sunday.
Keys to Victory:
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- #1: Pass early and often; build a lead that the Pittsburgh offense will have trouble making up for. This strategy has proven effective in both of the past two weeks, as the Browns have passed on 57% of their offensive plays in the first half during weeks 11 and 12, outscoring their opponents 42-3; in the second halves of these games, the Browns passed 45% of the time, and have conversely been outscored 21-20.
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- #2: Can the Browns’ depleted D-Line generate pressure against a top-10 team at not allowing Sacks? A huge part of the Browns success against Pittsburgh in week 11 was pressure generated against Mason Rudolp. In that meeting, the Browns were able to generate 15 total pressures (Sacks + QB hits), affecting 31% of the Steelers’ pass attempts and totaling -3.28 Expected Points Added (EPA) on these plays. They’ll have to prove they can affect the passing game again if they hope to avoid another letdown against a newly-minted starting QB.
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- #3: The Steelers’ likelihood to employ short and swing passes against this Browns defense (that one could assume will be out for blood) will require that the Browns play disciplined assignment defense and tackle well at all levels of the field. Ensuring that a bad offense isn’t able to break long gains that lead to the points they’ve been challenged to score so far this season should be a focus for the defense in a very meaningful December game.
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Steelers’ weak offense (EPA per Play -0.086, 28th) enters their matchup with Cleveland looking for a significant spark from newly appointed starting QB Devlin Hodges in a must-win game with significant playoff implications. The strength of the Steelers’ offense thus far has been the passing game (-0.085 EPA per pass, 26th), but their efficiency relative to the rest of the league leaves much to be desired as even this level of output places them in the bottom 25% of the league. As touched on above, the Steelers’ rushing game has struggled mightily this season, generating -0.171 EPA per rush through twelve weeks and ranking 31st in the league. Boxscore statistics do illuminate one are of strength in the Pittsburgh offense, their 6th-best Sack Rate, that could be important in their matchup with the Browns this week. Despite having started inexperienced QB’s since Ben Roethlisberger’s season ending injury in week 2, Pittsburgh has continued to protect their young signal callers with great efficiency this season, and the Browns depleted front will be challenged to prove that they can disrupt the Pittsburgh passing game to the same extent that they did in their earlier week eleven matchup.
The Browns’ defense enters this all-important matchup with Pittsburgh surging after some very good performances over the past four weeks of the season. By overall EPA per play, the Browns defense ranks 11th in the league, allowing -0.009 expected points added on their opponents’ offensive plays. Compared to the fact that they ranked 21st in this same statistic entering their week 10 matchup with the Bills, the Browns’ recent defensive upswing is even more evident. The Browns’ defense is an unbalanced unit, however, with their pass defense allowing -0.033 EPA per attempt (7th) while their rush defense is considerable worse, allowing 0.011 EPA per rush (23rd). Pittsburgh’s weak rushing game versus Cleveland’s weak run defense is a matchup to watch in this game, as both have been ineffective enough to allow uncharacteristic gains on the part of their opponents this season; limiting mistakes and playing disciplined in the run game will be paramount on Sunday. The Browns’ defense scores well in a few significant boxscore categories, namely their Sack Rate (6th), 3d Down Conversion Rate Allowed (6th) and their strengths against the pass are doubly evident in having allowed the 7th lowest Completion Percent along with the 9th lowest Yards per attempt in the league this season. Again, the rushing game is their Achilles heel, as the team ranks 27th in Rush YPA so far. Against this Steelers team, gap discipline and solid tackling will be keys to success, as Duck Hodges and company are likely to methodically work the ball downfield through the short passing game, limiting time for pressure to get home and mitigating risk of big mistakes on Sunday.
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Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
Pittsburgh’s defense is the well-publicized strength of their team and arguments can be made that, without the opportunistic turnovers that they benefitted from during their 4-game win streak earlier in the season, the Steelers may not be in the position that they are today in the AFC playoff picture. By overall EPA per play allowed, the Steelers rank 3rd in the league, allowing -0.099 EPA on an average opponent offensive play. The Steelers are best against the run, ranking 1st in the league at -0.191 EPA per rush, and don’t fare significantly worst against the pass, allowing -0.084 EPA per attempt (5th). These advanced stats have been helped by Forced Turnovers, where the Steelers rank 2nd in the league, but forcing turnovers is fickle business from week-to-week and can leave a defense high and dry when opportunity and preparation don’t combine to produce them. Pittsburgh has been excellent at producing Sacks (3rd, Sack Rate), at limiting points (7th, Points per Play) and their Rush and Pass Yards allowed per attempt mirror the advanced stats discussed above in terms of precedence (5th Rush YPA, 7th Pass YPA). Again, there are no glaring weaknesses on this Pittsburgh defense, and fans can safely bet that this unit will be out to prove that their week eleven outing against the Browns is not indicative of their overall quality.
The Browns offense, even after a few positive outings over the past month, still rates in the bottom 25% of the league statistically. By overall EPA per play, the Browns rank 25th in the league (special teams success on field goals and punts actually boosts their standing here a bit). The Browns’ rushing attack is the most efficient facet of their offense, averaging -0.045 EPA per attempt and ranking 17th in the league, while their passing game has been poor, averaging -0.072 EPA per pass and ranking 25th in the league. Against the Steelers’ 1st ranked rush defense this week however, a “Chub-Hunt” game plan may not be enough to build the kind of lead that Pittsburgh’s anemic offense won’t be able to catch up to. The Browns would be wise to continue their tendency to run a pass-heavy game plan early in the game in order to get out in front on the scoreboard prior to relying on their solid rushing attack to put the game away late.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
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The Steelers’ offense is dead middle of the pack in pass frequency on both first and third downs (in game neutral situations i.e. win probability between 20% and 80) and have achieved success rates of 40% (22nd) and 42% (25th) in these situations. Pittsburgh becomes run-heavy on second downs, ranking 23rd in pass frequency and achieving a success rate of 34%. Pittsburgh passes very frequently on fourth downs, something the Browns’ defensive staff should be keyed into heading into their matchup on Sunday. In these situations the Steelers have passed at the 3rd highest rate in the league and have achieved a success rate of 57% (28th).
Pulling apart the Steelers’ third down play calling, Pittsburgh tends to be run-heavy up to 4 yards to go, at which point they slowly become a pass-first team as yardage to the sticks increases. When they run the ball on third down, the Steelers have achieved a success rate of 42.9% (29th) as opposed to a 31.5% success rate (28th) when passing on third down.
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Pittsburgh’s red zone play calling is run heavy relative to the rest of the league and doesn’t find success at very high rates. Their most productive down is first down, where they check in with a success rate of 32%, good for 19th in the league. The Steelers run the ball heavily on second downs in the red zone, ranking 20th in pass frequency and 19th in success rate at 39.1% and they’re just plain bad on third downs in the red zone, achieving a success rate of 28.6% (29th) on with a pass rate that ranks them 17th in the league.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The Steelers’ 26th-ranked passing offense has not been good this season, but Browns fans know all about the trials of forcing young, unproven backup QB’s into action and won't feel too badly for their rival's troubles. Pittsburgh has had above average results throwing down the middle of the field so far this season, and Duck Hodges, in his very small and possibly irrelevant sample of attempts to these areas, has shown evidence of being able to throw with accuracy to these areas of the field. Both Pittsburgh’s offense as a whole and Hodges’s results (again, acknowledging the very small sample there) have not shown exceptional efficiency to the right side of the field, so Denzel Ward may be primed for a big day if “Duck” attempts to throw at him. On the other side of the field, Greedy Williams should be prepped for a busy day in the passing game if he continues to line up primarily at Left CB, as the Steelers have shown the tendency to over-index on pass attempts to the left of the field so far this season (Left: 41%, Middle: 25%, Right: 34%). As is evident above, strengths in the Steelers’ passing game which correspond to weaknesses in the Browns’ 7th-ranked passing defense are up the middle at all depths and to the left of the field from the line of scrimmage to 20 yards DoT. Cleveland’s weakness between 10-20 yards DoT on the right side of the field is likely a holdover from the period of the season when Denzel Ward was injured; his being active and the Steelers’ weakness at targeting the right side of the field should make this area of concern a non-factor on Sunday. Overall, if the Browns coverage is able to keep Pittsburgh’s short passing offense (69% of PIT passing attempts have gone less than 10 yd downfield) from breaking free for gains after the catch, Cleveland should be well-positioned to have another strong defensive outing against the pass.
Amid increased attention from defenses this season, Juju Smith-Shuster has produced flat EPA per target while sharing the receiving load with James Washington, Pittsburgh’s primary deep threat, and rookie Diontae Johnson, who has been the most productive wideout for the Steelers this season. Despite a smaller percentage of targets (possibly due to his mid-season acquisition), Nick Vannett has outpaced Vance McDonald as Pittsburgh’s most efficient Tight End, posting nearly 0.5 EPA per target since his arrival from Seattle earlier this season. Out of the backfield, both James Conner and Jaylen Samuels have been effective as receivers; the Browns will need to be on the lookout for their involvement in the passing game as Pittsburgh does involve them in the offense quite frequently as receivers.
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The Steelers’ 31st-ranked rushing offense is best through the right side C gap (over RT) and the left side D gap (over end, when a TE is employed), achieving flat EPA per rush when running to these areas of their offensive formation. Pittsburgh has achieved only average EPA elsewhere on their line, posting negative EPA when attempting to run to these areas. The Browns’ 23rd-ranked rushing defense gets Larry Ogunjobi back from suspension this week and may be duly blessed at having Olivier Vernon return from injury in a game where they’re unlikely to be tested significantly given Pittsburgh’s poor rushing output to date.
Disconcertingly, however, the Browns have allowed above-average EPA to both of Pittsburgh’s areas of strength (outside left end and over Right Tackle), which could be an area for Cleveland’s coaches to address as they install their game plans this week. Cleveland has also allowed above average EPA on runs behind both Center and Left Guard, areas where Pittsburgh has rushed with only average efficiency, but which also could require some mitigation against an offense that is likely to leverage, if the scoreboard allows, a short, methodical game plan in an effort to keep their defense fresh. The Browns’ best defense against Pittsburgh’s statistically poor rushing offense this week is to ensure that it doesn’t have an opportunity to get going by putting the Steelers behind on the scoreboard early and forcing them to bias play calls towards passing in an effort to play catch-up.
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​Defensive Efficiency:
Pittsburgh’s 5th-ranked pass defense has been best from on swing passes and out to 10 yards DoT, allowing average – albeit positive – EPA to opposing offenses on a per Attempt basis so far this season to these target areas. Where the Steelers are the weakest is almost anywhere downfield, as they’re giving up above-average to good EPA per attempt to 5 of 6 target areas at 10+ yards DoT and beyond so far this season. For their part, the Browns have been best in the passing game this year on passes to the right and middle of the field, posting above-average to good EPA per attempt to 5 of 6 target areas on the right side of Baker Mayfield’s formation through 12 weeks of action. When Cleveland has targeted the middle of the field down the seams at 10+ yards DoT, they have achieved solid results, but defenses may be taking this away on a consistent basis as increased attempts to these areas haven’t followed this success.
If the Browns want to successfully build a healthy lead and then proceed to frustrate the Steelers' defense on the way to a win this Sunday, the evidence above suggests that attacking downfield early and often against their pass defense is the right weakness to exploit. This dynamic is described above, and is further visualized in the density chart below, which shows that successful passing plays against Pittsburgh’s defense have been more frequently achieved between about 7 and 16 yards downfield than they have against the rest of the NFL's defenses.
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The Steelers’ 1st-ranked rushing defense has not evidenced a weakness along their defensive front, allowing an average of either zero or negative EPA per Rush to all gaps so far this season. Opponents’ best success rates against the Pittsburgh rushing defense have been achieved in the offense’s right side C-gap and in the left side D-gap (when a TE is employed there). These gaps line up nicely with strengths in the Browns’ rushing attack this week, as Cleveland has been best running behind the left side of their line as a whole, with Greg Robinson, Joel Bitonio and the Tight Ends that line up with them have averaged slightly positive EPA per rush. Runs over RT, to the right side C gap, have also been positive, as Chris Hubbard has been able to drive neutral EPA on average, but has helped RB’s to gain an average of 8 yards per attempt on runs directed to his outside shoulder. It’s also worth mentioning that even the Browns’ weak points in the rushing game aren’t deeply negative, as gaps where the team achieves average efficiency clock in at -0.1 EPA and about 4 YPA
In what’s sure to be a rough-and-tumble matchup in Pittsburgh on Sunday, runs over Left End appear to be the Browns’ best advantage against this Steelers’ defense on Sunday, presumably by running right at TJ Watt in an attempt to slow down or contain his pass rushing prowess. Getting Chris Hubbard in the run blocking mix against his former team with rushes to the right could also be a useful advantage for the Browns as well when game situations lend themselves more strongly to running the ball.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 11/27/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 11/27/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/PIT; Retrieved 11/27/2019.
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