brownalytics
CLEVELANd (5-7)
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VS
​CiNCINNaTi (1-11)
sunday, DECEMBER 8th 2019
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cleveland, oh
The Browns welcome their downstate rivals to the North shore on Sunday, looking to rebound from a crushing defeat in week 13 that has left their playoff chances bleak. When the game kicks off on Sunday, however, a postseason berth will still be left to play for and it'll be up to the embattled Cleveland coaching staff to ensure that the players in their locker room bring a level of focus and intensity befitting that fact to the field. Whether the Browns' locker room has already checked out, or whether the players in it are willing to play hard for one another and this coaching staff may be the most important thing to watch for on Sunday.
According to brownalytics’s projections, the Browns take this late season AFC North matchup in roughly 63% of simulations by the score line of 25-13. Below, brownalytics breaks down key tendencies and efficiencies that can help the team to cement this outcome on Sunday.
Keys to Victory:
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- #1: The Bengals’ defense is having a bad year all around; exploit them early and often through the pass to get on the board and keep them chasing, leveraging plenty of Chubb + Hunt sets to sell the possibility of the run. Keep the targets short, taking downfield shots as situations/matchups present themselves as the game progresses. Make the run a more prominent feature of the offense as the scoreboard dictates.
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- #2: Cleveland’s pass defense needs to stop the bleeding after a miserable day against a Pittsburgh offense that made them look much worse than they rate this season; watch the middle of the field, the Bengals passing offense is good up the seams and the Browns have been vulnerable in these areas.
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- #3: The Browns’ rush defense doesn’t match up well against the Bengals’ rushing offense. Aggressive offense from Cleveland early, challenging Andy Dalton to throw, may be the key to mitigating a matchup that isn’t particularly in the Browns’ favor.
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Bengals’ offense comes to Cleveland sporting the 28th best unit in the league, averaging -0.079 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play. The rushing game is Cincinnati’s strength, ranking 24th in the league and averaging -0.093 EPA per Attempt while their passing attack has been quite poor, ranking 30th in the league and averaging -0.156 EPA per attempt. Of course, the Bengals enter week 14 having endured significant losses on their offensive line, a season-long injury to their best receiving target and awkward flux at the quarterback position, all while working through the challenges presented to a rookie head coach in his first season in charge. Suffice it to say that (in the opinion of this blog at least) the Bengals have some good excuses for the lackluster productivity put up by their offense so far this season.
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Cleveland’s defense should have the pronounced advantage against a statistically inferior team this weekend, all they need to do is make their superiority count for something when all’s said and done on Sunday. The Browns rank 11th in the league in total EPA allowed per play, with their pass defense leading the way substantially at -0.018 EPA per Attempt (8th). The rush defense has been poor all year long though, ranking 24th in the league through 13 weeks of play and allowing an average of -0.001 EPA per play to opponents and leaving the Browns' defensive unit quite unbalanced. Cleveland will expect their pass rush to fare better (CLE Sack Rate 7th; CIN Sack Rate Allowed 23rd) than they did last week against Pittsburgh’s very good O-line and if the Browns’ coverage can keep pace with a Bengals passing game that finds much of their success downfield, they’ll be in a good position to win.
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Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The Bengals’ defense enters week 14 as one of the worst outfits in the league, ranking 27th and allowing 0.084 total EPA per play to opponents on the season. Both the rush and pass defense rank 28th in the league, while the pass defense (0.227 EPA per Attempt) has seemed to be far more exploitable than the rush defense (0.059 EPA per Attempt) thus far. It’s for this reason that the Browns’ best path to victory this weekend is likely by passing more frequently than running to start the game, reserving early rushing plays for short yardage and goal line situations. The Bengals defense isn’t very good in any particular facet of the game, ranking bottom quarter of the league in 12 of the 18 statistical categories presented above and confirming unnecessarily that this team should pose approximately the same defensive threat to Cleveland that Miami did two weeks ago.
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The Browns’ poor offense should get a boost from facing a struggling defensive opponent, and fans will rightly expect to see that offense play a full game’s worth of good football to accompany the handful of such performances they’ve turned in so far this season. Entering week 14, the Browns are 25th in the league by total EPA per play (-0.045) and their pass offense, which is critically important in today’s NFL, is the lesser aspect of their attack ranking 26th in the league at -0.083 EPA per Attempt. Without the rushing attack ranking a mediocre 15th in the league (-0.038 EPA per Attempt), this offense would be adrift. Despite the bleak backdrop, the Browns do still have a puncher’s chance at making the playoffs and, perhaps more importantly, have the next two weeks against weak defensive opponents to get on track before facing the red-hot Baltimore Ravens at home. Freddie Kitchens’s abilities to rally the team over the next month, to spark a passing game that should legitimately test every defense in the league and to give fans reason to believe until the very end are likely his only avenue to ensuring that he remains the team’s head coach into 2020.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
In neutral game script situations (win probability between 20% and 80%), the Bengals’ best success rates are achieved on 4th down conversion tries (69.3%, 7th), but they rank bottom half of the league by this measure otherwise. As one might guess given their hire of Sean McVay apprentice Zac Taylor in the off season, the Bengals rank in the league’s top 10 by Pass Frequency on first (9th), second (5th) and third downs (3rd), evidencing a fairly pass-heavy offensive scheme, but, as alluded to above, success hasn’t followed this approach in 2019. Cincinnati ranks 17th in the league on first down (Success = 42.7%), 32nd in the league on second down (Success = 30.4%) and 28th in the league on third down (Success = 37.3%).
Distance-wise, the Bengals are a conservative, run-heavy team up to about 3 yards to go on third downs, at which point they tend to try for conversions through the air. Cincinnati’s success rates seem to show why their coaching staff calls third downs in this manner, as the Bengals have had greater success on third down running plays (Success = 50%, Rank 24th) than passing plays (Success = 32.5%, Rank 27th) in neutral game script third down situations so far this season. Despite their rushing success being higher than their passing success on third downs however, the Bengals’ relative rankings leave one to wonder whether passing with greater frequency in traditional third down rushing situations could have a net benefit to the offense as a whole by making the team less predictable on these critical conversion tries.
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In the red zone, Cincinnati passes with frequencies that rank them in the top half of the league, but - again befitting an offense that has struggled in year one under Zac Taylor – relative success hasn’t followed. On first downs, the Bengals pass more frequently than most teams in the league, ranking 5th by this measure but achieving a success rate of only 29.6% (22nd). After seemingly “taking their shot” on first down, Cincinnati backs off a bit on second down, passing with 10th ranked frequency and achieving a success rate of 36.3% (24th). On the third downs that follow, the Bengals show their most conservative red zone tendencies, passing with 12th ranked frequency, and have their least success, ranking 27th with a success rate of 26.6% in these situations. The Bengals have yet to attempt a 4th down conversion in the red zone in a neutral game script situation this season.
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Offensive Efficiency:
For all of their problems scoring the football this season, the Bengals’ passing offense has been quite good to certain areas of the field. Cincinnati has generated above-average to good EPA per pass to 5 of 6 target areas from the middle to left sides of the field and, at 10+ yards DoT, they’ve been strong (when the passes are completed, that is). This phenomenon should make us all just a bit nervous for next season when the Bengals presumably trot out the first QB selected in next year’s draft to run an offense that has been decent passing downfield even given the facts that their #1 receiving target has been out all year and that their QB situation has been in flux. This preview is about Sunday though, and the 2019 Bengals have shown limited interest in testing opponents downfield this season, as their attempts have been strongly bunched in the shallow areas (68.5% of passes less than 10 yd DoT). Curiously, Cincinnati has been just average (albeit negative) to all areas down the right side of the field, which is where the plurality of their attempts have been directed (Left: 34%, Middle: 24%, Right: 42%). This likely means that Denzel Ward should have a prime opportunity to make up for a subpar week 13 performance this coming Sunday.
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Speaking of the Browns’ defense, the middle of the field, especially the intermediate middle, is again an area of pronounced concern. The Bengals average good EPA per pass to this area and above-average EPA per pass at short and deep depths of target down the seams, while the Browns have consistently given up above-average EPA per pass in that area to opponents this season. On the outsides, the Browns have been stronger down the right side than down the left, as opponents have shown the ability to generate above-average EPA with consistency when targeting the left side of the defense this season.
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The Bengals’ primary downfield targets are Auden Tate and John Ross III, who pair to form the most formidably efficient receiving combination that the Browns have seen in a number of weeks. Underneath, Cincinnati schemes targets to a host of players including slot WR’s Tyler Boyd, who leads the team in targets, and Alex Erickson, while Tight Ends Tyler Eifert and Drew Sample also play a role in the intermediate passing game. CJ Uzomah is used primarily on short targets, and RB’s Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard are targeted with similar frequency, though Mixon has proven to be the more effective option out of the backfield this season.
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Cincinnati’s rushing offense is best over right end, although they’ve had the most success rushing to the left side of their line generally. This is an acute concern this week as the Browns’ rushing defense has allowed above average EPA per rush on opponents’ attempts over right end so far this season. In fact the Browns’ rush defense has allowed above-average EPA per rush this year to all of the gaps where Cincinnati’s offense has been able to gain above-average EPA per rush. This could signal that the Bengals’ primary advantage this weekend exists in the rushing game, and further necessitates that the Browns either play uncharacteristically good rushing defense or limit the Bengals’ ability to run by putting them behind by multiple scores early, forcing them to chase in the passing game.
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​Defensive Efficiency:
The Bengals’ pass defense is getting absolutely torched this season. They’re giving up positive EPA per attempt on average to all target areas past the line of scrimmage, and have given up above-average to great EPA per attempt to all areas 10+ yards down the field. As in the Browns’ matchup with the Miami Dolphins, passing early out of sets that force Cincinnati to respect the run (read: no more empty for the love of all that is holy) should give the Browns a significant advantage when they possess the ball. If the Browns can attack the middle of the field, it offers their best opportunity for success, as Cincinnati has given up significant EPA per attempt down the seams as well as very strong completion percentages. For their part, the Browns’ pass offense limps into this game statistically poor and concerned about the health of Baker Mayfield’s throwing hand. Pushing the ball downfield against this defense isn’t a necessity, so keeping things simple and quick should be the team’s strategy in the passing game this weekend. Testing the Bengals downfield seems to offer the Browns’ best opportunity for success, however, so the coaching staff should keep that in mind for use in situations where coverages or matchups evidence a tactical advantage downfield.
Due in part to Cincinnati’s weak rushing defense, this game appears to be well-suited to answering fan outcry for seeing a lot of the Chubb-Hunt backfield set. In terms of the rushing attack, the Bengals have struggled to stop opponents’ rushing attacks to all gaps except over right tackle (right side, C gap), and the Browns should be no exception this Sunday. Cleveland has continued to be strong running the ball to the left side of their line, with their best EPA per rush being generated on rushes over left end or left tackle. When the Browns do dial up rushing plays this weekend, the majority should be directed behind the formidable combination of Bitonio and Robinson.
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Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 12/5/2019.
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​2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 12/5/2019.
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​3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/CIN; Retrieved 12/5/2019.
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