brownalytics
CLEVELANd (6-7)
​
VS
aRIZONA (3-9-1)
sunday, DECEMBER 15th 2019
​
PHOENIX, AZ
In all of the Browns’ preseason hype, most early narratives of the season relegated their week 15 match up with the Arizona Cardinals to an afterthought; it was billed as a probable win against the team that had picked first in the Draft and which would start a rookie QB under a first year head coach. Baker Mayfield’s first NFL match up with Kliff Kingsbury, the coach who spurned him at Texas Tech, was overshadowed, as was the possibility of his dueling with fellow Oklahoma Sooner Kyler Murray. Steve Wilks’s return to coach against the team whose ownership green-lit a plan to fire him after only one season in charge of the Cardinals was overlooked as well, and nearly no one expected the Browns as a whole to need a week 15 victory to keep their slim and waning playoff hopes alive for one more week. But here we are, a late season match up in the desert that is a must-win for the Browns if they hope to continue playing meaningful games in 2019. In brownalytics’ projections, Cleveland squeaks out a tight win this week, with the Browns winning in roughly 60% of projections, but by the too-close-for-comfort score line of 24-19.
​
Below, brownalytics breaks down key tendencies and efficiencies that can help the team to cement this outcome on Sunday.
Keys to Victory:
​
- #1: The Browns will again have an opportunity to lean into the passing offense early and often against a subpar pass defense in order to build an early lead; given the Cardinals’ strength in running the ball, making them one-dimensional by putting them behind early would go a long way to ensuring a Browns victory.
​
- #2: The Browns rushing defense faces off against a formidable challenge this weekend, as Arizona’s rushing attack ranks 4th in the league by Expected Points Added (EPA) per rush; tackling well and limiting the Cards’ run game would help Cleveland immensely this Sunday.
​
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
Kliff Kingsbury’s offense hasn’t exactly lit the league up in his first season at the helm in Phoenix, but they’re nothing to sneeze at either. Overall, they rank 19th in the league at a positive 0.014 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, with their strength residing in the rushing game (4th, 0.061 EPA per rush) and a significant drop off in efficiency when they pass the ball (22nd, -0.013 EPA per attempt). You may be inclined to wonder how much of that rushing success comes from Kyler Murray on scrambles, and it’s actually not a huge part of their success. Arizona only loses about 0.02 EPA per rush when Kyler’s scrambles are removed from the calculation, actually boosting the Cardinals from 4th to 2nd in the league in rushing efficiency when these types of plays are factored out. The Cardinals have done a good job of limiting turnovers, which is encouraging for a team with a new head coach and a rookie QB, and ex-Brown Kicker Zane Gonzalez has been solid enough to rank the team’s FG unit within the league’s top 5 overall (please no revenge games this week, Zane). All in all, this is a good rushing team and the Browns are likely to have their hands full containing them on Sunday.
As mentioned above, the Browns’ defense, which ranks 10th overall (-0.009 EPA Allowed per play) may struggle mightily to contain the Cardinals’ rushing game this Sunday, as Cleveland’s rushing defense checks in at 25th in the league, allowing 0.007 EPA Allowed per rush to opposing offenses. Forcing the Cardinals into passing situations against the Browns’ 7th ranked pass defense (-0.024 EPA Allowed per attempt) seems to be the team’s best leverage in a matchup of Arizona’s offensive strengths against Cleveland’s defensive weaknesses. To do so, the Browns’ defensive unit will need to do all of the things that fans have been clamoring for all season; namely, don’t take penalties and tackle well. The Browns should have an opportunity to get after Kyler Murray on Sunday, as Arizona ranks 28th in Sack Rate Allowed and, if they can get the Cards into 3rd downs, their relative advantage in stopping opponents in these situations (CLE: 3rd, 3d Conversion Rate Allowed) could combine with Arizona’s weakness at converting (ARI: 24th 3d Conversion Rate) to tip the scales in Cleveland’s favor.
​
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The Cardinals’ defense is another in a group of recent opponents that the Browns should have little trouble moving the ball against. They enter the game ranked 30th overall at 0.124 EPA allowed per play, with the rush defense (14th, -0.053 EPA per Rush) standing out as the strength of the unit while their pass defense is their Achilles heel (31st, 0.298 EPA per Pass). Essentially, the Cardinals have almost the exact opposite problem that the Browns do on defense. Interestingly enough, the Cardinals stand alone as the best team in the league at denying 4th down conversions (18% Allowed), but that’s trivia. There’s not really anything that the Cardinals do well on defense and they shouldn’t pose a significant threat to the Browns in either the run or passing games this weekend.
“Shouldn’t” and “Won’t” are two different statements, however, and the Browns offense has certainly had a knack for underachieving this season. They’ve been pretty steady for the past few weeks at 25th overall in the NFL at -0.034 EPA per play, with the rush offense standing out as their strength (12th, -0.015 EPA per rush) and the pass offense remaining consistently poor (27th, -0.077 EPA per attempt). Regardless, given this week’s opponent, the Browns should focus their game plan on attacking through the air early in the game, early in series; shoot, start throwing the ball during the coin toss. Whatever happens, it’s likely to go for positive EPA against this defense if it’s through the air. Cleveland's offense needs to pressure the Cardinals by getting them behind early on the scoreboard and, consequently, taking some of the punch out of their excellent run game by putting them in a situation where using it to full effect isn't strategically viable. Leads aren't built through the run game in today's NFL, and as much as everyone loves to see Nick Chubb accelerating through the second level of opposing defenses, leaning on the run game this week should be reserved for short yardage, red zone and game clock management situations given the notable weakness of the Cardinals' pass defense.
​
Playcalling Tendencies:
Arizona generally is in the middle of the pack leaguewide in terms of neutral game (win probability between 20% and 80%) pass frequency, despite what most may presume of a Kliff Kingsbury's offense. On first downs, the Cardinals have achieved a success rate of 42.8% (15th) with this balanced strategy. On second and third downs, the team achieves similar success rates and relative rankings in the league, 43.1%/23rd and 39.2%/26th respectively. Fourth downs are actually the Cardinals’ most efficient down in neutral game situations, where they have achieved a 64.9% success rate which is good for 8th in the league; the Browns should be wary of Arizona’s fourth down effectiveness when the game kicks off on Sunday.
Diving deeper on third downs, the Cardinals become a pass-first team at about the same distance-to-go as most other NFL teams, between 3 and 4 yards to the sticks, nothing notable about that. What is notable about the Cardinals’ offense on 3rd downs is that they achieve substantially more success through the run (66.7%, 8th) than they do through the pass (21.7%, 30th) in these critical situations. Yards to go matter here, but it’s also likely that David Johnson’s ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and Kyler Murray's escapability both come into play strongly here, with Kingsbury using their presence on the field to put opposing defenses in a bind as to whether they defend the run or the pass.
​
Arizona’s red zone offense is fairly aggressive on first down, passing with the 8th-highest frequency in the NFL and achieving a success rate of 38%, which is good for 9th in the league. After that, however, the Cards’ series tend to stall. On second downs, they achieve a success rate of only 35.6% (22nd) on passing frequency that places them 24th in the NFL and on third down their success rate drops to 32.1% (28th) despite passing the ball with a frequency that places them 10th in the league. The Cardinals’ 50/50 run-pass split on 4th downs in the red zone is bottom third of the league by pass frequency, and their seemingly-strong success rate of 85.7% in these situations is actually only good for 16th in the NFL.
​
​​
Offensive Efficiency:
Arizona’s passing game has been most efficient to the middle and right of the field, with the team achieving above-average to good EPA per attempt at all target areas beyond 20 yards DoT. In addition, the Cardinals have shown both an interest in and ability to target the middle of the field at 10-20 yards DoT, averaging a 65% completion rate and good EPA per attempt over a fair amount of targets to this contested area of the field. Cleveland’s defense will need to be wary of the deep ball given the Cardinals’ demonstrated ability to make big plays downfield, but of far more frequent concern will be the coverage unit’s ability to ensure that plays targeting the shallow-to-mid areas (0-19 yards DoT) don’t cause the Browns headaches throughout the day, as Cleveland has given up positive EPA per attempt to all of these areas on average this season.
Mayfield native Andy Isabella is far and away the Cardinals’ most efficient pass catching option and should be shadowed by the Browns’ defense on any critical downs they face against Arizona on Sunday (i.e. 3rd/4th downs, Red Zone). Trent Sherfield has emerged as the Cardinals’ primary downfield threat, with a host of other WR’s being targeted more frequently in the 7-10 yard range. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk lead the team in targets, while Damiere Byrd and Rookie KeeSean Johnson provide depth and tend to be targeted in that 7-10 yard range identified above. Tight Ends Pharoh Cooper, Maxx Williams and Charles Clay tend to be targeted in the same area of the field, with Clay being the best of these options and the 2nd most efficient receiver on the team. Among RB’s, David Johnson is targeted frequently in the pass game and has averaged positive EPA per target when he is; the Browns will need to be aware of his presence on the field in typical passing situations on Sunday. Kenyan Drake and Chase Edmonds, however, have not be quite as effective as Johnson as receiving threats, as they average negative EPA per target so far this season.
​
The Cardinals have been best running over end this season, achieving above-average to good EPA per rush when running off end so far this season. Additionally, they have achieved above average EPA per rush over left tackle, evidencing strength to the left side of their line in general, and behind center. These strengths matchup poorly for the Browns in that Cleveland has allowed above-average EPA per rush to each of these gaps throughout the 2019 season to date. Additionally, the Browns’ lone “strength” against the rush (allowing average EPA per rush over opponents’ left tackle) is a holdover from the days before Myles Garrett’s suspension and has been creeping in the wrong direction since. Suffice it to say, the Browns’ weakness against the run is a major concern this week, especially if the Cardinals are allowed to keep the game within reach, or even to lead, on the scoreboard into the 3rd or 4th quarters on Sunday.
​
​Defensive Efficiency:
Arizona’s pass defense is exploitable all over the field, as they allow positive EPA per attempt to every single target area visualized above along with allowing a completion percentage against north of 70%. For the better part of the past month, the Browns have found themselves in matchups like this one and should continue to press their primary advantage in the passing game against the Cardinals by passing early and often to build a lead. The Cardinals are best at defending swing passes and are weakest down the seams of the field, an area that the Browns have been loath to attack with frequency this season, but where they’ve been efficient when they have. Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are excellent weapons to have on the ground, but the Browns’ best opportunity to make the Cardinals chase on the scoreboard is by passing the ball against a very weak Arizona passing defense.
​
Arizona’s defensive strengths against the run game are most consistent against rushes over the right side of opponents’ lines, but they have also allowed below-average EPA per rush when teams attempt to run over left tackle. Weaknesses in the Cardinals’ rushing defense appear to be over both ends. When the opponent’s offense employs a Tight End in the formation and rushes to the D-gap, they have achieved between above-average and good EPA per attempt. This is good news for the Browns, who enter this matchup achieving above-average EPA per rush when running off end, which could potentially make up for strength-on-strength matchups elsewhere in the trenches, like over right and left tackle in addition to a seemingly unfavorable matchup for the Browns in the right-side A and B gaps.
​
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 12/12/2019.
​
2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 12/12/2019
​
3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/ARZ; Retrieved 12/12/2019.
​