brownalytics
CLEVELANd (6-8)
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VS
​baltimore (12-2)
sunday, december 22nd 2019
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cleveland, oh
The Browns draw the Ravens in a game of stark contrasts as the 2019 season draws to a close. The Ravens sit at 12-2 and own homefield advantage in the AFC should they win their final two games, while the Browns’ postseason hopes are all but extinguished. Baltimore enters this match up very much looking ahead, with a world beating offense and a dynamic young quarterback, and Cleveland is on the cusp of a long offseason, much of which is likely to be spent dissecting the team’s disappointing 2019 campaign. This young Browns team will enter the game knowing that, in all likelihood, they’ll line up against the Ravens this Sunday with only their pride on the line. Will they show up, or will they roll over as fans have seen with similarly adrift Browns’ teams in the late weeks of December? The teams’ statistical profiles to date suggest that the overmatched Browns will come up short; brownalytics projects the Ravens to win in roughly 85% of simulations, and by a lopsided score of about 41-10.
Below, brownalytics breaks down a few observations that may help the Browns avoid this outcome on Sunday..
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Keys to Victory:
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#1: Stop the run on First and Second downs.
The Ravens run the ball more frequently than most teams in the NFL overall and despite all of their offensive success, they’re pretty average on neutral game script (win probability between 20% and 80%) 3rd downs, particularly in passing situations. If the Browns can slow down the Ravens’ early rushing attack, they stand some chance at getting the overmatched defense off the field.
#2: Run the ball on offense.
The Browns only offensive advantage against Baltimore this week is their strong rushing game against the Ravens’ below-average rush defense. An added benefit of running the ball is that it bleeds clock, controls tempo and keeps the Ravens’ offense on the sidelines. If any game in recent memory cried out for a steady diet of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, it’s this one.
#3: Seek to get ahead early.
That statement seems obvious, but as the Browns are well aware, scoring in bunches on Baltimore’s defense can keep their offense off balance. Taking the ball to start the game (i.e. not deferring, if able to decide) and going for 4th down conversions are just two tactics that the Browns’ coaches should employ early in the proceedings on Sunday to seize the initiative and to put touchdowns on the board against an opponent that is most comfortable leaning on their running game to methodically grind their way to victory. Making aggressive decisions that increase the Browns’ possibility of scoring points, especially early in the game, may help take the Ravens out of their comfort zone.
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Ravens come to Cleveland on Sunday toting the undisputed best offense in the league through week 16. Baltimore ranks 1st in EPA per Play (0.211), in EPA per Pass (0.334) and in EPA per Rush (0.187) and in most of these statistics the 2nd place team isn’t even close. Baltimore’s identity is that of a running team that doesn’t pass with great frequency, but which achieves excellent efficiency when a pass play is dialed up. Strengths in this offense are many and weaknesses are nearly non-existent, although, as PFF articulated in an article published earlier this week, the Ravens haven’t shown much of an ability to come back when trailing substantially in games so far this season. The Browns’ offense getting ahead by one or two scores early may be the overmatched Cleveland’s best hope at stymying a great Baltimore offense this Sunday.
Cleveland’s defense has played like a very average unit all season, looking good for stretches against poor competition and many shades of weak against good competition. Overall, they rank 14th in the league, allowing 0.012 EPA per play to opponents’ offenses. Cleveland’s pass defense has been a highlight, ranking 8th in the league in EPA per Pass Attempt (-0.007) despite notable injuries and absences that have plagued the defense all over the field since week two. The run defense however, has been a disaster for Cleveland (27th, 0.041 EPA per Rush) and figures to be gashed again this week against a Ravens team that runs the ball frequently and efficiently.
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Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
In the Browns’ first matchup with the Ravens, Baltimore’s defense was the uncharacteristic weakness of the team. Of course, we all know that their week four meeting resulted in a resounding win for Cleveland, stoking hopes that the Browns’ floundering offense had finally gotten things on track. Coming into week 16, we find a Ravens’ defense that has rebounded nicely since that early season meeting. By overall EPA allowed, Baltimore ranks 6th in the league (-0.041 EPA per play), with their pass defense (-0.135 EPA per Attempt, 4th) coming through as the stronger aspect of the unit when compared with the run defense (-0.012 EPA per Rush, 20th).
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The Browns enter week 16 with their offense never having lived up to the hype that accompanied the unit into the 2019 season. Overall, Cleveland’s offense ranks 25th in the league (-0.028 EPA per Play), with the run game (0.005 EPA per Rush, 9th) qualifying as the strength of the offense when compared with the pass (-0.068 EPA per Pass, 25th). Immediately, a potential match up that favors the Browns would be their strong running game against a Ravens run defense that ranks in the bottom third of the league. Going further, despite their success against the pass generally, the Ravens haven’t sacked opposing quarterbacks with great regularity in 2019. This could open up opportunity for Baker Mayfield and company to test Baltimore through the air selectively while relying on the Browns’ advantageous match up in the run game to control the tempo of the game against what would appear to be an overwhelmingly strong opponent on Sunday.
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Playcalling Tendencies:
The Ravens enter Week 16 sporting a dominant, run-first offense that has them scoring points with exceptional efficiency. Given that, it’s unsurprising that the Ravens rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate on 1st (30th), 2nd (31st) and 3rd (32nd) downs and middle of the pack by the same measure on fourth down. What is surprising about the Ravens’ offense is that their best success rates by far come on 2nd (53%; 2nd) and 4th (71%, 5th) downs, while their efforts on 1st (44%; 13th) and 3rd downs (46%; 15th) are fairly mediocre. What this dynamic could highlight for the Browns’ defense on Sunday is the imperative to stop the Ravens’ rushing attack on first and second downs, leaving Baltimore in 3rd and long situations where all the defense needs to worry about is the pass while keeping Lamar Jackson contained (please note: heavy sarcasm).
So if the Browns can get the Ravens into 3rd and long passing situations, what does Baltimore typically dial up to convert? By and large, they follow the same script as most teams in the NFL, rushing the ball on third downs between 0 and 4 yards to go, while passing at 5+ yards. Baltimore is better off running the ball in these situations, as they achieve a 53% success rate when they run versus a 37% success rate when they pass. Again, if the Browns are able to stop the Ravens’ run-heavy attack on 1st and 2nd downs while leaving them in 3rd down situations where passing is necessary, they stand a fair chance of getting the Ravens to 4th down.
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Getting the Ravens to 4th down, however, doesn’t necessarily mean that the punt team will be trotting onto the field. As has been well documented this season, the Ravens’ in-game usage of analytics has been credited for many of John Harbaugh’s decisions around when to go for a conversion on 4th down instead of following conventional thinking and kicking the ball away. The chart below visualizes trends within the Ravens’ play calling that seem to show that Baltimore reserves 4th down tries for situations when the offense has driven the ball to near or beyond midfield. Inspecting the chart, it appears that once the Ravens get to their own 40 or 45 yard line, they’re more likely to try the conversion than to kick. The logic here is fairly straightforward; by the numbers, the benefits gained from a conversion (new set of downs, forcing the defense to defend all 4 downs) are greater than the downside risk associated with failing to convert and turning the ball over around midfield or within the opponent’s own territory.
In the red zone, Baltimore continues their tendency to run the ball far more frequently than they pass, ranking 31st or 32nd in pass frequency on all neutral situation red zone downs. First downs are the Ravens’ worst downs from a success rate point of view as, opening red zone series, Baltimore achieves success 32% of the time (Rank = 20th). The Ravens’ offense improves down by down from there on out though, achieving successful plays methodically as they go: 2nd Down: Success = 39% (13th), 3rd Down: Success = 50% (11th), 4th Down: Success = 100% (1st). If there’s anything to take away from these tendencies and results, it’s that Cleveland may want to sell out on first down in an attempt to get the Ravens off schedule and behind the sticks in any red zone situations that materialize on Sunday. The numbers above indicate that the Ravens’ offense will only get better as their red zone possession continues; putting them in a challenging situation early may be the best counter for Baltimore’s strong late down efficiency.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The Ravens passing attack has been very efficient this season, with Lamar Jackson spreading the ball around to many different receivers and target areas while opposing defenses are challenged to be ever-wary of his ability to take off on a back breaking scramble. Strengths of particular concern for Cleveland should, as always, be the Middle of the field from 0-20yd Depth of Target, where the Browns have been allowing above-average EPA to opponents all year long. Additionally, the Ravens have been gaining Great EPA per Attempt to the left of the field from 10-20 yards DoT, another area where the Browns have allowed above average returns to opponents in the passing game. For the Browns to challenge the Ravens passing attack on Sunday, they’ll have to take away options to the middle of the field better than they have thus far this season while also relying on their defensive line to set the edge and contain Lamar Jackson’s running threat; that’s far easier said than done.
Myles Boykin has been the Ravens’ most potent downfield threat, while a host of both WR’s and TE’s tend to be targeted at around 10 yards depth of target (DoT), evidencing an offense that attacks the most valuable parts of field with a wide variety of weapons. As expected, TE’s Hayden Hurst, the Ravens’ 2nd-most efficient receiving target, and Nick Boyle average a bit shallower DoT than Baltimore’s other receivers (approximately 7yd DoT). Out of the backfield, Mark Ingram has been a very efficient weapon for Baltimore on passing plays that the Browns will need to be aware of in passing situations on Sunday.
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Baltimore has the best rushing attack in the league this season by a mile, so there are no matchups here where Cleveland should expect to find efficiencies. Most worryingly, the Ravens gain their best EPA per Rush rates over either Tight End and these happen to be the areas where the Browns have struggled most to limit opponents’ gains, with Cleveland giving up 0.2 EPA per Rush when opponents rush through either D-gap. The Ravens are also great at running off Left Tackle, which appears to be the strength for this Browns defensive line, but their ability to slow down opposing backs over the left side C-gap is a remnant of the bygone days when Myles Garrett was still with the team. The rushing game does not shape up to be a match-up that favors the Browns in any way this weekend and they’ll probably need to devote additional personnel to defending against the Ravens’ run game, opening things up for Lamar Jackson through the air.
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​Defensive Efficiency:
Baltimore is best against short and swing passes, allowing negative EPA per attempt to 5 of 6 target areas out to 10 yards depth of target (DoT). That tendency flips past 10 yards DoT, where Baltimore has given up positive EPA per pass to 5 of 6 target areas. If the Browns are to exploit the Ravens’ pass defense on Sunday, they’ll be best served to target areas downfield at 10-20 yards DoT as this is the area of the field where Cleveland’s strengths coincide with Baltimore’s weaknesses. Cleveland should not expect success when targeting the short or deep middle of the field this weekend, as these areas line up with both Browns’ weaknesses and Ravens’ strengths. If the Browns keep passing plays targeted at mid depths and bias to the right side of the field with attempts, success seems likely to follow.
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Baltimore has limited opponents to only average EPA on runs to the left side of opponents’ formations, allowing -0.2 EPA per rush to both the left side A and B gaps so far this season. This will potentially negate a strength for the Browns, as they’ve gained above average EPA running to these gaps and could need to find success elsewhere against the Ravens on Sunday. If the Browns are to run the ball well against the Ravens on Sunday, they’ll be best served to run over their right side (Right Tackle or Right End), as Baltimore has given up above average EPA per rush to these gaps so far this season.
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Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 12/20/2019.
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​2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 12/20/2019
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​3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BAL; Retrieved 12/20/2019.
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