brownalytics
CLEVELANd (1-1)
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VS
​L.A. RAMS (2-0)
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 22ND 2019
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CLEVELAND, OH
​The Browns enter their game against the defending NFC Champions as sizeable underdogs, which is to be expected from a narrative standpoint. The Rams have proven their bona fides by stringing together two straight double-digit win seasons and an appearance in the Super Bowl while the Browns haven't been close to that kind of success since the late 1980's. Statistically speaking, the Browns are vast underdogs because they're playing a team that ranks 7th in Points per Play for and 10th in Points per Play against through two weeks of the 2019 season. Optimistic Browns fans will make the counter-point that the Rams have only beaten a Carolina team that many have already left for dead, and a Saints team that lost perennial MVP candidate Drew Brees during their game. But make no mistake, this team is very good. The Rams' defense is excellent at every position on the field and their offense is powered by a quality line and the football acumen of Head Coach Sean McVay. Even with the Browns at home, it would take another monumental week three performance out of Baker Mayfield and the Browns' offense along with a dominant effort from the defense for Cleveland to come away from Sunday night's game with a victory. There are a few reasons to believe that they can do it, but brownalytics's pregame win probability model envisions a rough outing, culminating in a 31-14 loss to an established NFL power.
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the L.A. Rams is @laramalytics!
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The Browns seemed to find their defensive identity again in a decisive week two victory over the Jets. This identity orbits around pressuring the quarterback (currently second in the league for sack rate) and controlling 3rd downs (currently first in 3rd down conversion rate allowed). The Rams will need to give Goff as much time as possible and limit pressure in order to be effective offensively. The Rams offensive line is middle of the pack in pass protection so far this season, so mitigating this Browns pass rush will probably require additional protection for Goff and a scheme heavy on short, quick passes. This won’t be anything out of the ordinary for the Rams this season as 70% of their pass attempts have been swing or short passes (<10 yards downfield). These two objectives for the Rams offense, limiting the number of hits Goff takes and making effective short passes, translates to driving the ball down the field consistently and maintaining control of the clock. Supplementing a short passing attack with well-timed run plays should allow the Rams to put up a respectable offensive performance against an intimidating Browns defense.
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The key for the Rams defensively is to generate and maintain pressure on Baker Mayfield, as this should limit his ability to get the ball to his offensive playmakers and could force him into mistakes (8 sacks, 4 interceptions so far this year). The Rams defense should not have much difficulty pressuring Baker, as the Browns so far have been bottom-tier (27th) in sack rate allowed, while the Rams have been fairly effective at pressuring quarterbacks (15th in sack rate). The Rams should be looking for this sack rate to improve as Aaron Donald has yet to record a sack this season despite averaging 1.28 sacks/game in 2018. Controlling the run game will be important, but so far this season the Rams have been effective at stopping the run (9th in rush yards per game) while the Browns have yet to establish themselves as a capable rushing threat (22nd in rush yards per game). The focus should instead be on pressuring Baker and preventing explosive offensive plays to OBJ or other stars on the Browns offense.
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- Rams pregame matchup analysis contributed by Ramlytics (Twitter: @laramalytics)
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Rams offense has been good through week two and hasn't displayed any glaring weaknesses yet in this young season. Their most important strength is in point scoring efficiency, where they rank top quarter of the league (7th overall) in both point-scoring efficiency metrics presented here. The Rams are also strong in Net Turnovers, which is important but high-variance from week-to-week, and Time of Possession, which is highly correlated to playing with a lead (again, based on their ability to score points efficiently). Given all of the fanfare for Sean McVay's offense, one would think that he's asking Jared Goff to sling the ball deep and often, but that's not the case as the Rams' ADoT on the season clocks in at a somewhat surprisingly low 6.9 yards per target. Given this fact, one would expect the Rams' completion percentage to rank higher than 22nd in the league, but the figures check out. This discrepancy between low'ish ADoT and poor completion percentage hints at unsteady QB play out of Jared Goff so far this season. The Browns will have to bring pressure early and often to keep him uncomfortable and out of sync if they hope to buck the Rams off their offensive game on Sunday.
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The Browns defense has been the strength of this team so far. If the Browns can pull off an upset this week, they'll need to continue getting after the QB which, as discussed above, could be the key to disrupting the Rams' short-to-mid range passing attack. The Browns have been excellent thus far in limiting opponents' 3rd down conversion efficiency, ranking 4th in the league through week one and tops in the league through two weeks of play, having only allowed conversions on 17% of the third downs they've faced (absent penalties). If the Browns can play stout run defense on first down, disrupt Jared Goff on second down and set LA up in predictable 3rd and long situations, they'll put themselves in position to beat a very good team. Speaking to the Browns' glaring weaknesses, turnovers forced (Browns Rank: 24th) and net turnovers (Browns Rank: 27th) are low because turnovers generated are equal parts skill and luck; it would be nice to be better off in this area, but the turnovers will come if the Browns keep playing aggressive defense. Passer rating against (Browns Rank: 25th) isn't particularly useful in predicting future wins, so not much to talk about there. The Browns do rank near the bottom quarter of the league in points per play against (Browns Rank: 23rd; a significant factor in brownalytics's model heavily favoring the Rams in this matchup), but arguments can be made that this stat is skewed by a Browns defeat to the Titans in week one that was a closer game than the scoreboard ended up indicating.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The Rams' defense has no glaring weaknesses from an overall league rankings perspective; they don't even rank below the midpoint of the NFL in any statistical category, significant or otherwise. This team is good. Picking out weaknesses here feels disingenuous, but the Browns may be able to exploit a middling rushing-efficiency defense by lining up in formations that challenge the Rams to defend both the run and the pass, and by empowering young Baker Mayfield to make the right reads and checks depending on the looks he's given. The problem with that observation, however, is that the Browns are middle of the pack themselves in rush yards gained per attempt, so it would seem that paper cancels out paper here from a statistical perspective.
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Even to the casual observer, the Browns offense has been out of sync and will have to prove that they aren't who a small statistical sample size says they are against a very stern test this week. The Browns have allowed too many sacks, in part because Baker Mayfield is holding on to the ball about 10% longer than he did in 2018 despite similar year-over-year ADoT. Baker is also having a rough go of the early season in terms of both raw completion percent (60.3%; ranking 30th among all QB's) and in The Athletic's Ben Baldwin's "Completion Percentage over Expected" measure, which factors depth of target (i.e. weighting deep and shallow throws differently) into the traditional completion percentage calculation. By CPOE, Baker is only slightly better than league average thus far; certainly not where we expected him to rank when the Browns added Odell Beckham to an already-productive offense during the off season.
Additionally, from a team perspective, converting on 3rd down continues to plague the Browns, with several mid-game drives against a depleted Jets team in week two requiring a "go" call on 4th down in order to be extended. It's not a pretty picture statistically speaking, folks; these Browns will need by far their most complete effort of the season to make up for their early offensive shortcomings on Sunday night.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The Rams offense surprisingly favors running early to set up the short passing game, at least through two games of the 2019 season. Going deeper, in 2018, the Rams were ranked right in the middle of the league in first down pass rate at about 48%, so an increase of 6% run frequency (over a small sample size) doesn't seem crazy from that perspective. They do have a good offensive line and a coach who has proven to be able to put up points and pile up wins in his 2+ years at the helm, so things seem to be going just fine in L.A.
The Rams, as with every other team, become more conservative in the red zone, running the ball about 13% more frequently on first down in these situations than in the open field.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The Rams' ADoT is lower than one would probably be expected based on the discussion of their prolific offense over the past couple of seasons. This evidence of consistent incorporation of short passes in LA's offense makes it challenging for teams to bring pressure regularly given the risk of Jared Goff hitting a hot route that goes ends up becoming a big play. Understanding these tendencies, it would be ideal if the Browns' defensive line could bring its A++ game on Sunday night, enabling the team to both cover and pressure without leaving holes in coverage to trying to increase pressure on Goff.
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When the Browns do load up a blitz on Goff, one of Cooper Kupp, Gerald Everett or Tyler Higbee will most likely be running a short route that Goff will try to beat their pressure with. Simultaneously, Brandin Cooks will be screaming downfield to beat their remaining coverage over the top.
The Rams rushing attack is good; probably the best the Browns defense has seen in 2019 at generating positive EPA plays to set up success on subsequent downs. The Rams seem to be able to lean on any NFL running back - from highly touted prospects like Todd Gurley to waiver wire pickups like C.J. Anderson - and to produce on the ground. Most likely this speaks to both the quality of an offensive line that includes the ageless, all-world LT Andrew Whitworth and the creative scheme employed by HC Sean McVay which enables his team to keep defenses guessing as to what their intentions on any given play might be.
​Defensive Efficiency:
The Rams are great to the right side of the field in coverage, limiting routes to all depths with one of the best all-around coverage groups in the NFL, featuring FS Eric Weddle, CB Aquib Talib , CB Marcus Peters and LB Cory Littleton. Again, there are no glaring weaknesses here, but the Rams do give up above-average EPA to the left side of the field and they haven't been tested deep there to this point of the season. Possibly an area that the Browns could look to probe, especially with the talent they possess in their receiving corps.
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Again, the Rams defense is good against the run as well, allowing mostly poor-to-average EPA across their defensive front in 2019. If there's a weakness to leverage here, it would appear to be running against the right side of their front (off of the offense's Left Tackle), but over such a small sample size it's hard to definitively call that out.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 9/12/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 9/17/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/LAR; Retrieved 9/17/2019.
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4. Bryan, Tim. "Week 3 LAR vs. CLE Preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 9/19/2019. E-Mail.
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5. @benbaldwin (2019, Sep. 17). "And finally, QBs through Week 2". Retrieved from https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/1174109467136450560?s=20