brownalytics
CLEVELANd (1-2)
​
VS
​baltimore (2-1)
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29th 2019
​
baltimore, md
​The Browns arrive in Baltimore on Sunday to a pivotal week four matchup. At the end of this game, the winner will own the outright AFC North lead and will have made an early statement about who will control the division, and who will chase, in the early phases of the 2019 season. The Ravens have started the season on fire offensively and just fine defensively, but questions around their quality of competition they've faced so far are legitimate, and they'll look to prove that the early season returns are no fluke. The Browns once again head into a road test looking to shake off a disappointing offensive performance and to live up to the lofty expectations of the men inside Cleveland's locker room. The key matchup in this game will be the Browns' strong defense against the Ravens' excellent offense, which has produced prolifically through the first three weeks of the year. The way the numbers shake out, brownalytics's model does not foresee a happy Sunday for Browns fans. The Ravens' offensive prowess through three games gives them a clear edge on the spreadsheets and projects a 44-7 drubbing at the hands of Harbaugh, Jackson and company. But fear not Believelanders! There are several areas for optimism that, if highlighted in Cleveland's gameplan, can help our Browns buck these early statistical estimates and leave Maryland with sole possession of first place in the AFC North on Sunday evening.
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
The Ravens' offense has been on fire, there's no other way to put it. According to the statistics presented above, they're tops in the league in five categories, top quarter in the league in 15 of 18 and no worse than top half in the others. No weaknesses have been exposed in this team's offensive game so far and it'll be up to the Browns' defense to do so if they hope to be competitive in this game. The argument against these early statistics is that the Ravens offense will have lined up against subpar defensive competition in the Dolphins (32nd EPA Allowed/32nd Success Rate Allowed), the Cardinals (25th EPA Allowed/23rd Success Rate Allowed) and the Chiefs (16th EPA Allowed/26th Success Rate Allowed) to start the season. The Browns defense (11th EPA Allowed/10th Success Rate Allowed) will be their sternest test yet, and by a bit of a margin at that. Notable Ravens strengths as presented above include scoring efficiency metrics (1st Pts per Game/4th Pts per Play) and 3rd Down Conversion rate (5th). As with last week, the Browns will look to counter these strengths by getting after the QB with pressure and by taking away quick throws that help Lamar Jackson to beat pressure for big gains, but obviously this is a double-edged sword as Jackson is far more proficient at avoiding pressure with his feed than their previous opponents' QBs have been.
​
As mentioned above, the Browns' defense will be the strongest unit that the Ravens have faced so far this year. Similar to the Ravens though, the Browns' offensive opponents haven't exactly lit up the field on offense this year. The Titans (22nd EPA Gained/27th Success Rate), Jets (31st EPA Gained/31st Success Rate) and Rams (21st EPA Gained/6th Success Rate) aren't nearly the test that Cleveland will face this weekend in Baltimore (1st EPA Gained/7th Success Rate). It's strength versus strength in this matchup; the Browns will hope that their ability to get home with pressure continues, this week against a very elusive QB, and they'll need to remain effective on both 3rd and 4th down conversion attempts to send the Ravens' explosive offense to the sidelines as often as possible. Glaring weaknesses have eroded from Cleveland's defensive statistical profile since their week one drubbing, but they'll need to take their disruption, discipline and coverage to another level to pull out a division victory on the road this week against an opponent that is rolling.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
For what seems like the first time in literally forever (relative to the Ravens' franchise history at least), Baltimore's defense is the weaker unit that they'll field against the Browns on Sunday. They've been strong against the run and have been well on the positive side of the turnover battle, but that stat owes more to the offense limiting giveaways than to the defense forcing takeaways prolifically so far this season. The Ravens have limited pass completion efficiency well and they have been pretty strong at getting off the field both on defensive series in general and when faced with 3rd down situations; exactly what you want from a defense when your team's offense is playing as well as Baltimore's is at the moment. On the other side of the coin, allowing big plays in the passing game (25th in Pass Yds per Play/27th in Pass Yards per Game) could be this team's defensive achilles heel. For all of the social media clamoring for Freddie and Co. to limit downfield shots on the logic that this is what's got the offense out of sync, this week may actually be the right opponent to test on deep shots based on the numbers above.
​
There's no way to sugar coat the fact that the Browns offense has now trotted out three straight disappointing efforts, culminating in a deflating final series against L.A. that confounded fans and ultimately cemented a week three defeat. Fanalysts are right to point out that Austin Seibert has been solid this year, giving the team a sense of confidence in their kicking game that they haven't had in recent years. Due in part to Seibert's skill, Cleveland finds itself in a seven-way tie for first in the league in Field Goal accuracy. On the negative side, the Browns are ranked bottom quarter of the league in almost every stat that bears significance in predicting week to week wins. Scoring efficiency and 3rd down conversion rates are way off of what will be necessary to keep pace with a Baltimore offense that has the league buzzing. To reverse this trend, the Browns will need to get the passing game going early against a Ravens team that, even despite adding Earl Thomas to a strong secondary, has leaked yards on deep passes. Lightening up the box for Nick Chubb with a few successive wins through the air could be just the formula for Cleveland to establish their ability to keep the Ravens defense on the field and guessing about what's coming next if the Browns are able to put it all together for the first time this season on Sunday.
Playcalling Tendencies:
Despite the fanfare around Lamar Jackson's strong early season performance, the Ravens are still a running team according to the tendencies they've shown evidence of thus far into the season. Baltimore has run the ball more often than league average (49.1%) on first downs in game neutral situations, setting their offense up in 2nd and an average of 7.8 yards to go. The Ravens remain conservative on 2nd down, having a pass rate of only 54.2%, 6 percentage points lower than league average overall. Even on the ensuing 3rd and average 7.8 that the Ravens have faced in 2019, they run the ball about 14% more often than league average (19%). Given this play calling profile, the Browns "big nickel" defensive formation would seem to be the right matchup against a team whose identity, despite narratives around passing success, is still to run in order to set up opportunities in the passing game.
​
In the red zone, the Ravens run about 6% more frequently on game neutral first down plays than league average (54%) and set themselves up in 2nd and 7 situations generally. Baltimore has called a 50/50 split on red zone 2nd down plays so far in 2019, running about 8% more frequently than the rest of the league and resulting 3rd and 5 situations typically, from which they've passed on all of their attempts thus far this season in game neutral situations. Again, the data indicate that the Ravens are here to batter opponents on the ground until opportunities open up in the passing game when a defense loads up to stop them.
​​
Offensive Efficiency:
The Ravens' passing offense clocks in at a very respectable 10.6 yards ADoT on the season, lending a counter argument to the narrative that Lamar Jackson's arm talent is subpar. Tight Ends Hayden Hurst and Mark Andrews have been targeted frequently and with good results at around this depth so far, while Marquise "Hollywood" Brown has added a deep threat to create more room on underneath routes where Baltimore's offense has generated average-to-great EPA/target across the field on pass plays. Add in TE Nick Boyle and RB Mark Ingram, who have been productive when needed on very short routes, and you've got a picture of a Ravens offense that has everything in sync early. Looking at the Browns' defensive EPA allowed chart, the most exploitable target area for Lamar and Co. on Sunday would appear to be the middle of the field at Mid and Deep depths of target, and on short routes to the left side of the formation. If the Browns are to short-circuit Baltimore's offense this Sunday, they'll need to find some way to ensure that they're better against passes down the seams than they've been to date this year.
Much like last week's opponent in L.A., the Ravens' rushing attack has been efficient across their whole line so far in 2019. Their tendency is to run right (49% of Attempts) over left (26% of Attempts), although they've realized their most efficient rushing plays off of left end. Runs over left end stand out as a weakness for the Browns so far this season, and running straight at Myles Garrett would seem to be a good way to mitigate his pass rushing effectiveness. Furthermore, the Browns have limited opponents' success through the middle of the line, adding incentive for Baltimore to test the fringes of their defensive front on run plays this week. Given these indications, the Browns' defense should be on the lookout for the Ravens to over-index on runs off of Left End this Sunday.
​Defensive Efficiency:
Defensively speaking, the Ravens have given up EPA at Good rates (between the 73rd and 85th percentiles for opponent pass EPA historically) to the left and middle of the field at Mid and Deep depths of target. They've also yielded EPA at above average rates (between the 60th and 72nd percentiles for opponent pass EPA historically) to the deep right area of the field so far in the season. While many Browns fans are clamoring for shorter routes this week, attacking a potential weakness to Baltimore's mid-to-deep left and center fields could yield results this week, especially given the Browns' Good efficiency passing to the middle of the field thus far in 2019. Another reason that a wholesale shift to a short passing game might not be an optimal strategy for Cleveland this week is that, like the Browns, the Ravens have played solid defense at the sticks and in front of them, limiting short passes from turning into big plays for their opponents. While Browns fans are right to take issue with downfield routes that have Baker Mayfield holding on to the ball for too long in 2019, the data says there's value to be gained in taking these types of shots against this Ravens team. Of course, employing a strategy that incorporates deep shots will require that the Browns' offensive line holds up against a very capable pass rush. There again, it's strength versus strength in this matchup as well, as both units have graded out well according to advanced statistics through three games (CLE #3 in ESPN Pass Block Win Rate/BAL #1 in NFL Next Gen Stats' "Time to Hurry").
​
The Ravens rushing defense has been strong through the middle of their formation and off of opposing Left Tackles, but they've only been tested lightly so far this season, having faced only 47 attempts thus far. Normally, the Browns' best strategy on the ground would be to run right (against the left side of the Ravens' defense), but the right side of the Browns' offensive line hasn't been very efficient through the first three weeks of the season. Perhaps the return of Chris Hubbard will spark a turnaround in the run game along the right side of the Browns' offensive line, but absent that the matchups in the trenches don't offer the Browns any clear advantages against this Baltimore defense.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 9/26/2019.
​
2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 9/26/2019
​
3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/BAL; Retrieved 9/26/2019.
​