brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-2)
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VS
​SAN FRANCISCO (3-0)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 7TH 2019
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SAN FRANCISCO, CA
​Fresh off a week four beat-down of their hated division rivals in Baltimore, the Browns head out West for a road test against a rested 49ers team that has played very well through three games so far this season. On offer is an opportunity to maintain leadership in the AFC North while scratching out a tough win during the most difficult portion of the Browns' schedule this season. To do so, the Browns will need to overcome a team that, despite questionable competition, has put up strong numbers through its first three games of the season and who will enter this week five matchup having not played in two weeks or traveled in three. The Browns are surging after a big win against the Ravens, can they keep the momentum up and unseat one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the NFL on a national stage this Monday night? The spreadsheets say that San Francisco is favored to win in roughly 77% of simulations, and by an ugly margin of 37-13 at that. There are a few areas of opportunity, however, that the Browns can leverage to continue to prove that their early-season issues are behind them and don't constitute an accurate picture of what this team will really end up becoming in 2019.
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the 49ers is @isaiahearnold!
From the 49ers' perspective, this week is a fascinating matchup. The Browns look to be by far the best team that the Niners have faced since playing Tampa Bay in week one. Though the Browns' record isn't what some expected, both wins have been decisive. Of their two losses, the Browns' week one loss was perhaps the annual "WTF game" that plagues many teams, and the other came courtesy of a tight battle with one of the best teams in the NFC. The Niners should absolutely not be looking at the Browns as your run of the mill .500 team heading into this week.
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On the offensive side of the ball, 49ers' biggest challenge this week will be pass protection. The pass protection through the first three weeks has been stout to be sure, ranking 1st in the league in sacks allowed per game and 2nd in sack rate allowed. This comes after facing excellent pass rushers in Shaq “Apparently Lawrence Taylor” Barrett and the revitalized Tampa Bay defense, TJ Watt and a tough Steelers crew, and...well, Cincinnati. Sophomore Mike McGlinchey has even graded out with the highest pass block win rate for OTs in the league according to ESPN's PBWR statistic. So why is pass blocking the biggest concern? In week 2, veteran Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Staley suffered a broken bone in his leg that looks to keep him out for two months. In to take his place is 6th round pick Justin Skule, who will this week be lined up against Myles Garrett. Though the rest of the line should be able to hold the same pace it has so far this season, Garrett could be enough on his own to wreck the 49ers' passing game and force them to continue turning the ball over at the worst rate in the league. If that does turn out to be the case, the Niners will likely be forced to rely on their 2nd ranked rushing offense (by yards per game) to exploit the Browns' 21st ranked rushing defense, slowing the game down and limiting pass rush opportunities for an aggressive Cleveland defense.
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Defensively, the biggest concern for the 49ers is in the passing game. Richard Sherman and Akhello Witherspoon have looked like one of the best pairs of corners in the league this year so far. But as good as the Niners defense has been on the outside, they have struggled in the middle. The 49ers rank among the league’s worst in passes down the middle of the field at mid and deep levels.
OBJ and Jarvis Landry have been relatively quiet through four weeks; each having had only one game so far in which they have surpassed 100 yards receiving. They have certainly not been bad, but not what the two are fully capable of doing given that many view Jarvis and Odell as two of the most dangerous players in the league in the middle of the field. So, combine Akhello Witherspoon’s week 3 injury with the previously-noted weakness down the middle of the field, and this could be the week the duo breaks out for Cleveland.
The best way for the 49ers to counter this potential advantage is to pressure Baker Mayfield. There has been discussion on analytics twitter about the Browns offensive line getting more blame than they should for their 24th ranked sack rate. Whether it's the line’s fault or #6’s fault, they are still ranked 24th, and the talented Niner pass rush should be able to take advantage to help the secondary out this week. As for the rushing attack, Nick Chubb is a fearsome back. The 49ers' rush defense has been very good (4th ranked yards per attempt), but teams have been able to find above-average efficiency running right at the 2nd overall pick Nick Bosa early on in his career.
Expect the Browns to continue this trend. Be kind to my boy, Mr. Chubb.
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- 49ers pregame matchup analysis contributed by Isaiah Arnold (Twitter: @isaiahearnold)
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
For a second straight week, the Browns' defense will be tasked with cooling off an offense that has started the season on a roll. The 49ers enter this matchup ranked top quarter in the league across 11 of the 17 metrics provided above, including ranking first in Sacks Allowed per Game (and second in Sack Rate - which is calculated as sacks divided by pass attempts). The 49ers are also very strong in point scoring metrics, they convert 3rd Downs frequently and they generate yardage through the passing game efficiently while also throwing for a high completion percentage. Stacked against the Browns' defensive weaknesses to date, the passing game stands out as a potential area of concern this week. Where the Browns have done a good job of limiting gains to opposing offenses on passing plays, when they do pass the 49ers' offense has done a good job of leveraging short targets (ADoT 7.1 yd, 23rd in NFL) to methodically move themselves down the field with consistent positive gains (Pass Success Rate 53%, 2nd in NFL). The Browns had a great game plan against the Ravens' strong running game last week; they'll likely need to pay increased attention to Shanahan's innovative short passing game this week to be victorious.
There aren't many meaningful mismatches that favor Cleveland when comparing the boxscore stats of these two teams. Weaknesses evidenced in the 49ers' offensive statistics are either high variance metrics (turnovers allowed) or not something that many coaches would base their game plans on (FG completion rate), so there's not much to pick at from the Browns' perspective. In fact, the stats above evidence a second straight week of strength vs. strength matchups between the Browns' best defensive attributes and those of the 49ers' offense. The Browns' pass rush (3rd Sacks per Game/ 4th Sack Rate) will need to produce against the 49ers' strong pass protection (1st Sacks per Game/2nd Sack Rate) and the defense as a whole will need to prove their ability to deny 3rd Downs (4th) against the 49ers' ability to convert them (6th) if the Browns are to shut down the 49ers' offense this week.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The 49ers' defense has performed arguably even better than their offense has based on the boxscore statistics above. The unit ranks top quarter in the league in 13 of 18 statistics surveyed and lands no worse than 18th in any of them. Notable strengths exist in not allowing many first downs to opponents, although they are mediocre at stopping 3rd down plays, limiting opponents' passing efficiency from both completion percentage and YPA standpoints, and clamping down on opponents' rushing attacks, ranking top-5 against the run. One could reasonably accuse these statistics of being a bit inflated by a lack of strength on the part of San Francisco's three opponents (Tampa Bay, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) to date, however. EPA per play for those three offenses (TB 15th, CIN 30th, PIT 28th) and success rate (TB 21st, CIN 31st, PIT 15th) leaves us with the impression that at least some of the 49ers' defensive success thus far can be attributed to their having played a group of teams whose advanced statistics together would rank their offenses around 23rd in the league.
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The Browns' passing offense seems to have rebounded statistically from the depths of the league rankings coming out of their first couple of games. The Browns' rank top quarter in the league in both overall yards per play and yards per pass attempt through four weeks of play, and they'd be smart to test this 49ers defense primarily through the air this week. If there is a weakness to speak of between San Francisco's run and pass defense, their pass defense comes in ranked as the lower of the two (Rush YPA 4th/Pass YPA 8th). The Browns' weakness on 3rd down conversions should be primed for a rebound against a 49ers team that is only mediocre at stopping teams in these situations. However, Cleveland's low ranking in completion percentage will most likely be exacerbated by a defense that excels at shutting down opponents' short passing games (Approx. Avg EPA/Db against -0.48 at 10 yards or less DoT). Cleveland's best bet for attacking this San Francisco defense will most likely be to target throws beyond the sticks in this matchup.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The 49ers' offense runs the ball on 1st down very frequently; 16 percentage points higher than league average (49.9%) in fact. San Francisco then runs the ball about 1 percentage point higher than league average (40.3%) on second down with generally about 9.4 yards remaining for a first down. Luckily for the Browns, this 49ers team runs the ball with similar frequency to that of their most recent opponent in Baltimore, so not much about the game plan needs to change to try and contain them. Limit gains on first and second downs in the run game and keep everything in front of them in the pass game on third down and everything should work out fine.
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San Francisco's deep commitment to the run game extends to the red zone as well, where they run the ball a staggering 26 percentage points more often than league average (55%) on first down. On second down they pass about 2/3 of the time (+10 pts vs. League Avg) against an average distance to gain of 7.4 yards and they go right back to running the ball on 3rd down, rushing about 19 percentage points more frequently than league average in these situations.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The 49ers' pass offense is predicated on short throws (ADoT 7.1yd, 23rd in NFL), but their greatest passing efficiency (by EPA) has been realized at 10+ yards depth of target thus far this season. Jimmy G and company have averaged roughly 0.85 EPA on throws downfield versus 0.14 EPA on throws less than 10 yards target depth, but only 31% of their pass attempts have traveled more than 10 yards downfield. This could be a strategic consideration; Shanahan running repeatedly to tempt defenses into crowding the line of scrimmage enough to take a shot downfield while throwing short passes to get his offense out of sticky situations seems like a reasonable, if inefficient, plan. Against the Browns, who showed the ability to shut down a highly effective rushing attack against Baltimore last week, the 49ers would be wise to exploit short passes to the left and middle of the field, where Cleveland has given up above-average EPA to opponents so far this season. Another area of concern for Cleveland's defense may be the middle of the field at 10-20yd DoT, where the Browns' defense has given up good EPA to opponents and has yielded a 73% completion percent over 11 targets. If Shanahan wants to dial-up a deep ball against this Cleveland defense, their best bet for success is to throw to the right, where the Browns have given up above-average EPA thus far this season.
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George Kittle is the go-to passing option for San Francisco's offense and Deebo Samuel has fit in very well himself, quickly becoming Jimmy Garoppolo's 2nd favorite target through three games in 2019. Marquise Goodwin is the 49ers' best deep ball threat, but Richie James has also been targeted downfield with some frequency so far this year. Out of the backfield, Raheim Mostert is the most dangerous pass catching option on this team, while Matt Breida is more of a threat in the run game.
The 49ers rushing game is their bread and butter offensively. In fact, they rank 1st in the league in total rushing attempts per game at 37 and 3rd in the league in non-garbage time rushing attempts per game at 25.3 heading into week five. Is all of this rushing working though?
Short answer, not really. While the 49ers rank 12th in the league at 4.6 yards per attempt, they rank only 19th in the league in EPA per attempt (-0.08 EPA per Rush); despite all that rushing, they're not very productive when they do it! By contrast, the Browns rush the ball far less (21st in the league in attempts per game) but average 0.002 EPA per attempt, good for 12th in the league. If the Browns' defense can stay disciplined and not let anticipation of the run affect their ability to counter the pass, they'll stand a good chance of stopping the 49ers offense this week. Sure, the Browns might give up the odd 6 or 11 yard run on first down from time to time, but staying disciplined against the pass is the key to ensuring that this team's receiving threats don't get open behind them to put points on the board in bunches.
​Defensive Efficiency:
Looking spatially at the 49ers' pass defense, the Browns should try to exploit a pronounced weakness in the middle of the field at 10-20 yards DoT in this game. Not only are the 49ers allowing Elite level EPA per play (i.e. EPA per play in excess of the 95th percentile historically) and a 100% completion rate to this area of the field, but the Browns' offense has also generated Good EPA per play to the same target area. Opening things up a bit, the Browns should also look to attack the left side of the 49ers defense at 10+ DoT, as the 49ers have given up above-average EPA to this area of the field. The Browns should probably stay away from the right side of the field with passes to all levels of depth, as the 49ers have denied opponents pass attempts to that side of the field prolifically so far this season.
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The Browns' rushing offense was quite good to the right side of their line last week against Baltimore (an 88 yard TD scamper always helps those numbers), but it'll be a tall order to replicate that success against a San Francisco defense that is at its strongest against runs to the offense's right. Adding to that logic, the 49ers defense has given up above-average EPA per rush on runs off of left tackle and left end so far this season. The Browns have realized similar gains to the whole left side of their line on rushing attempts this year, so testing the 49ers' defense against runs behind Bitonio, Robinson and a left-aligned TE should be part of the Browns' game plan this coming Monday.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 10/3/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 10/1/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/SF; Retrieved 10/3/2019.
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4. Arnold, Isaiah. "Week 5 Preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 10/3/2019. E-Mail.
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