brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-3)
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VS
​Seattle (4-1)
sunday, OCTOBER 13TH 2019
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cleveland, oh
​The Browns enter week six of the 2019 season riding quite the roller coaster after some significant highs and some pronounced lows coming out of their last few performances. Most recently, of course, was the public flogging that they endured at the hands of former OC Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers last Monday. Nonetheless, the team is on to their matchup with another strong NFC West team in the Seattle Seahawks this weekend, and they'll hope to reverse some very disappointing trends on both the offensive side and, less so, the defensive side of the ball. Hope, however, is not a course of action.
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The Browns will need to channel their embarrassment and play the way that most expected them to as the season began a little over a month ago if they want to send Seattle to only their second loss of the year. It'll be a tall task, as Seattle is confident, rested and lands in Cleveland with an offense that, statistically, looks like it can put up points with the best teams in the league. For their part, the Browns are weighed down statistically by an underperforming offense and a defense that has been mostly good, but that doesn't seem capable of carrying the team through Cleveland's very challenging opening phase of the season. In Brownalytics's pregame projections, the Browns just haven't evidenced the quality that would indicate that they'll be able to upset a surging team like Seattle this weekend. The statistical comparison between Seattle and Cleveland projects a second straight trouncing, by a score of 31-13, for the Browns this Sunday.
Of course, below we'll dive into a few key findings that could help to avoid this outcome, including:
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- Cleveland's strong pass defense, possibly bolstered by significant returns from injury
- A favorable pass rush matchup that will need to disrupt Seattle's deadly passing attack
- Weakness on weakness matchups between Cleveland's offense and Seattle's defense that, if leveraged by Freddie & Co., could enable the Browns to gain some much needed momentum going forward
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But first, some thoughts from the opposing side of our week six matchup with Seattle...
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the Seahawks is @deryck_g1!
The Seahawks will come to Cleveland with a couple extra days' rest after defeating the Rams last Thursday. This game however, is a 10a.m. pacific time start which has been known to have an adverse effect on west coast teams. Starting with the Seahawks defense, they have been fairly average to this point. They are once again stout against the run, ranking 12th in yards allowed per rush and 9th best in EPA allowed per rush. The Browns offense ranks 10th in yards per rush and 13th in EPA per rush. Luckily for the Browns, the Seahawks pass rush has not been stellar, rankings 25th in sack rate. The Seahawks secondary is also ranked 17th in pass yards allowed per attempt but Shaquill Griffin has been a stand out this season. Seattle will need Griffin to play well Sunday because despite the struggles, OBJ and Jarvis Landry are still a top tier wide receiver duo.
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Flipping over to the Seahawks offense, Russell Wilson is playing as well as he ever has. A brief overview: he's 1st in yards per pass attempt, 2nd in completion rate, 3rd in EPA per dropback, and has yet to throw an interception. Myles Garrett and the rest of the pass rush will need to put constant pressure on Russell Wilson to try and disrupt his game. Cleveland’s defense ranks 4th in sack rate while Seattle’s offense ranks 20th in sack rate giving a definite edge to Cleveland. Additionally, Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward appear to be on track to return, improving the Browns' secondary. They will have to slow down Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf who both have top flight speed to beat defenders deep. While Russell Wilson has been effective throwing to any part of the field, his deep ball is one of the best in the league, and the Seahawks should test the Browns secondary in that department.
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Seattle’s run game has not been as effective as last season, but Cleveland was gashed by the 49ers rushing attack and currently ranks 30th in yards per rush as well as 29th in EPA per rush. The Seahawks will try to get Chris Carson going and may just find success. The Seahawks also have the most effective red zone offense to this point, a situation where the Browns defense has struggled this season.
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​​- Seahawks pregame matchup analysis contributed by Deryck (Twitter: @deryck_g1)
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
Seattle's offense ranks 6th in EPA per Play and 12th in Success Rate overall so far this season. Notable strengths include their passing attack, where the Seahawks rank #1 in Passer Rating, #2 in Completion Percent, #2 in Yards per Attempt and #8 in Yards per Game. Given all of this success, Russel Wilson finds himself smack in the middle of early MVP discussions and the team finds itself serious contenders in a very competitive NFC West race. With all of this passing success comes points; the Seahawks rank 8th in the league in Points per Game and 10th in Points per Play, speaking to their ability to keep pace with even the most prolific offenses in the league so far this year. Weaknesses are few, but the most significant one to mention is Seattle's ranking 22nd in 3rd down conversion rate, which could bode well for the Browns who have been quite good (5th overall) at stopping opponents in these situations so far this season. The Seahawks also rank a disappointing 27th in Field Goal conversion rate even after spending to acquire Pro Bowl Kicker Jason Myers from the New York Jets in the offseason. While it's not a stat that the Browns' coaching staff would game plan against, knowing of Myers's inconsistency so far this season could be a factor in the Browns' defensive strategy should they find themselves holding on to a slim lead in the closing moments of the game this week. A timely gust off of Lake Erie would certainly be welcome there as well.
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To attempt to slow down Seattle's pass offense, the Browns will have to rely on a combination of their strengths in limiting passing effectiveness and pressuring opposing QB's to disrupt a highly effective unit. Entering the week, the Browns rank 9th in Pass EPA Allowed per Dropback, 7th in Pass Yards per Game and 10th in Pass Yards per Attempt, not to mention that the possible return of starting CB's Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams will presumably help bolster their coverage ability. To compliment a strong pass defense, the Browns rank 4th in Sack Rate and 7th in Sacks per Game; they also rank 10th in pressures (calculated as sacks + QB hits). It's safe to say that Cleveland will need excellent games out of both Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon, who will be tested by both Russel Wilson's overall playmaking ability and a good outside running game. As noted above the Browns have been great so far on 3rd down this season and they may have a pronounced advantage in these situations, especially playing at home, but that will require them forcing Seattle (who ranks 10th in plays per first down on offense) into 3rd downs in the first place. Concerning weaknesses for the Browns this week come in the form of their lack of strength against the run, especially against a team that loves to move the ball on the ground. Coming into the week, the Browns' defense ranks 29th in the league in EPA per Rush, 29th in the league in Rush Yards per Game and 30th in the league in Rush Yards per Attempt. If the Seahawks are able to gain positive momentum in the rushing game early, the Browns will be in for a long day.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
Coming into week six, Seattle's defense is middle of the pack overall, ranking 13th in EPA allowed per game and 25th in Success Rate allowed per game. Notable strengths include ranking top quarter of the league in 3rd down conversion rate allowance (#6). In Rush Yards Allowed, Seattle ranks #4 in yards per game and #12 in yards per attempt. This divergence in in per game versus per attempt success is an indication of opponents' rushing volume against this Seattle defense, as opposing offenses are electing to pass against a below-average Seahawks pass defense instead. Coming into week six, the Seahawks have been passed against at the 6th highest rate in the league, while they've been rushed against at the 5th lowest rate in the league; opposing OC's see something in the coverage matchups that they like so far. Speaking of the pass defense, Seattle's comes in ranked 17th in yards per attempt and 26th in yards per game, perhaps indicating that teams have been able to leverage the short to intermediate passing game to keep Seattle's defense on its heels. Not helping Seattle's defensive coverage at all are their results in pressuring opposing QB's so far this season; Seattle ranks just 24th in Sacks per game and 25th in Sack Rate, bottom quarter in the league by both measures.
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In order to capitalize on Seattle's weaknesses this week, the Browns will need to turn around some very negative trends of their own if they hope to win on Sunday. Overall, the Browns' offense clocks in at a very disappointing 28th in EPA per play and 30th in Success Rate through five games this season. Where the Seahawks haven't gotten after opposing QB's, the Browns haven't been able to keep theirs from being sacked, ranking 25th in both Sack Rate and Sacks per Game. Where the Seahawks are having trouble defending the pass, Cleveland ranks 30th in passer rating and 31st in completion percentage. Add to these issues the Browns' lack of scoring (25th Pts per Game/22nd Points per Play) and their inability to sustain drives with first downs (28th 3d Conversion Rate/28th Plays per First Down), and the Cleveland offense really has a steep hill to climb to get themselves out of the funk they've been in since the season began, but as we examine below, there are weaknesses in Seattle's defense that can be exploited and that could help the Browns regain their footing this week.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The Seahawks have a habit of annoying their activeTwitter following by favoring play calling that focuses on the run game, limiting Russel Wilson's opportunity to make plays. Just how much do the Seahawks favor running the ball though? (Spoiler alert, it's a lot). On first down in game neutral situations, Seattle passes the ball about 44% of the time, just on the cusp of being in the lower third of the league and approximately 5 points lower than league average. On second down the Seahawks continue to commit to the run, digging their heels in against leaguewide trends and passing the ball approximately 15 points less than average for the rest of the NFL, placing them well within the bottom third of the league in 2nd down pass frequency. Even on third down, the Seahawks tend to run the ball significantly more frequently than league average passing only 34% of the time in these situations, 17 points less than league average and well within the bottom third of the league. Long story short, expect a gameplan from Seattle that looks to set up their prolific passing game by first establishing the threat of the run in the minds of Browns defenders.
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In the red zone, the Seahawks tend to fall more in line with league averages across the board, passing at frequencies that would place them in the middle third of the league on all downs in neutral game situations. It's possible that this departure from the Seahawks' typical run-first strategy is enabled by Russel Wilson's ability to make plays with his legs if/when passing plays break down in the restricted airspace near the end zone, and the Browns should remain aware of the threat that he poses with his legs in these types of situations on Sunday.
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Offensive Efficiency:
The Browns' pass defense, which was teetering on the edge of average going into last week's game with San Francisco, now appears to be allowing mostly above average EPA to two-thirds of the target areas on the field beyond the line of scrimmage. They may get starting CB's Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back from injury this week, but they'll certainly be needed as Seattle's passing game has demonstrated above-average to great efficiency (i.e. EPA per Dropback between the 60th and 95th percentiles historically) to all areas of the field beyond the line of scrimmage. To date, the Browns have been good to the deep left of the field and about average to the right side of the field, but they've allowed consequential plays to the highest value target areas between the hashes so far this season, areas where Russel Wilson and the Seahawks' receivers are notably efficient.
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Speaking of Seattle's receiving threats, Tyler Lockett is by far the most productive target for Russel Wilson, which isn't particularly surprising. Tight End Will Dissly coming in as Seattle's second most-productive receiver was somewhat of a surprise, however, as was rookie WR D.K. Metcalf's solid target share through five games this season. As one might expect from a very efficient offense with an MVP-caliber QB, targets are disbursed between varying levels of depth and spread out among available targets, evidencing Russel Wilson's veteran ability to take what's available to him in the passing game. When Seattle's receivers aren't open, Wilson has shown an ability to generate positive gains on Running Back targets as well this season and, of course, his ability to make plays with his feet is an ever present danger to opposing defenses. All in all, it's simple to see why Seattle's passing offense has been so efficient to start the 2019 season.
Seattle's rushing game is strongest to the outside and weakest to the inside, ranking 24th in the league overall through week five in EPA per rush. This balance doesn't bode particularly well for the Browns this weekend, as San Francisco was able to leverage runs to the outside - particularly those off end - to achieve success rates over 60% on total13 carries.
In fact, this weakness actually evidences something of a trend, as Cleveland's outside run defense has been suspect for at least the past three weeks. The Browns will need a substantially better showing in limiting opportunities off end if they plan to slow down Seattle's outside run game this Sunday.
​Defensive Efficiency:
By the numbers, Seattle's defensive weakness appears to be in their ability to slow down opponents' passing games. Of course, Cleveland's passing offense has been the subject of much consternation so far this season, so something's got to give in this one. Spatially speaking, the Browns' best opportunity to attack the Seahawks' defense through the air appears to be in the middle of the field at 10-20 yards DoT. Additional opportunities may exist to the left of the field at 10-20 yards DoT and on deep shots down the seams, as these align to target areas where Seattle has given up EPA efficiently and where the Browns have at least generated positive results thus far in the season. Mixing in a steady dose of quick throws over the middle could also be beneficial to getting the passing attack in rhythm while exploiting a Seahawks defense that has given up consistent positive EPA and a nearly 70% completion rate to that area. While more advocacy for taking deep shots may not be music to the ears of Browns fans after the horror show that was the team's week five outing in San Francisco, this Seattle team does rank 30th in the league in total pressures (Sacks + QB Hits). Aggressively attacking a below average pass defense (17th Total EPA/17th EPA per Play) to get Baker and company back on track could be worth the risk.
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The Browns' success in the run game has been the saving grace of their offense so far this season, ranking 13th in the league by EPA per Play compared to the passing offense which ranks 30th. As that rank would suggest, the Browns have had average-to-above average success across the line through five games this year, and have realized similar success rates rushing to either side of the line al well. These numbers do seem to favor running to the left a bit more strongly than to the right, but not by much. The Seahawks defensive front seems most likely to yield favorable results for the Browns' rushing attack over their left side this Sunday, with the most exploitable areas appearing to be the left side A and B gaps. If recent history is a predictor of success this Sunday, look for the Browns to have their best luck running behind Bitonio, Robinson and Tretter.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 10/10/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 10/10/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/SEA; Retrieved 10/10/2019.
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4. @Deryk_g1. "Week 5 Preview". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 10/10/2019. E-Mail.
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