brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-4)
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VS
new england (7-0)
sunday, OCTOBER 27TH 2019
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Foxborough, ma
​The Browns have been out of the national media's crosshairs for a little over a week now and the respite was necessary. The team enters week eight rested but desperate, needing a win to prevent their slim playoff hopes from languishing further and from, likely, looking up at both the Steelers and Ravens ahead of them in the AFC North standings on Tuesday morning. Standing in the Browns' way are the New England Patriots, the NFL's own Galactic Empire, brandishing their newest hope-destroying mega weapon, one of the most the most dominant statistical defenses that the NFL has ever seen through seven games into a season. For their part, the Browns have rest and preparation on their side; they come into Sunday's matchup having not played in 13 days whereas the Patriots will only have 5 days of rest and preparation come game time. After two straight games where this dynamic was distinctly not in Cleveland's favor, they finally get a break in this regard, but it's one of very few edges they'll have this week. Even given this advantage, the Browns are heavy underdogs in this game according to brownalytics's win probability and points for/against models' look-ahead projections of Cleveland's week eight matchup. In brownalytics's projections, the team is favored to win in only 2.6% of occurrences, and the scoreline shapes up to be a horrendous blowout at 52-0'ish.
Of course, below we'll dive into a few key observations that may help to avoid this outcome, including:
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- CLE's rushing efficiency (8th EPA/Rush Att.) could be their best leverage against NE's defense
- Short passes (0-10yd DoT) may be the best tactic to for attacking a truly dominant Pats' pass defense
- The Browns' fading defense has the opportunity to prove that they can carry the team when needed
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Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
We'll start this statistical breakdown with the good news. Heading into Foxborough this weekend, the Patriots offense can be considered the "weakness" in the team, clocking in with a below average ranking by Expected Points Added (19th EPA per Play; Rush 24th/Pass 14th). According to conventional stats though, they are putting up strong numbers in a few significant categories, to include Scoring Efficiency, where the Pats rank 1st in Points per Game and 3rd in Points per Play. Additionally, the Pats rank 5th in Pass Yards per Game, which is important to winning in today's NFL. Of particular concern to the Browns should be New England's ability to avoid sacks; the Pats rank 4th in sack Sack Rate and 7th in Sacks per Game, setting up a strength-on-strength matchup with Cleveland's pass rush which will need to bring its best effort of the season so far to disrupt a meticulous New England Offense.
Part of the reason why New England's offense doesn't "pop" from a statistical point of view is that their strategy thus far in the year seems to be centered on dinking and dunking their opponents into submission. Through seven weeks so far, New England's 568* offensive plays, 81* per game, is good for 1st in the league by both measures. Combine those figures with their ranking 3rd in the league in Time of Possession Percentage (which is influenced to a strong degree by clock management in blowout wins), and we're presented with the image of an offense that takes moderate gains where they can get them, scores far more often than they don't, and leaves their opponents to play from behind against their outstanding defense. A notable weakness in the Pats' offensive game is their rushing efficiency (Rank: 31st Rush Yards per Attempt), so the Browns would seem to be in line for a break from the strong rushing attacks that they've seen in San Francisco and Seattle of late. But the facts that the Pats are playing at home and that they've got a deadly short passing game should cancel out the Pats' inefficiencies in rushing the ball, so this observation isn't much for the Browns' coaching staff to bank on.
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Now we start to bring in some bad news. From an overall perspective, Cleveland ranks 21st in EPA Allowed per Play (Pass: 18th/Run: 26th) through their six games this season, so playing the 19th ranked offense isn't the advantage that it otherwise could be. As is detailed above, the Browns best defensive strength, sacking the passer, doesn't necessarily match up cleanly to a weakness in New England's offensive game, as they have been near the top of the league in keeping their QB clean this season. Additionally, where the Pats have struggled to run the ball efficiently (31st in Yards per Attempt), the Browns have been equally weak in stopping the run (31st in Yards Allowed per Attempt), and given that the game is being played in New England, the offense likely gets the advantage there. A small, twinkling ray of hope in all of these numbers concerns the Browns' 7th ranked 3rd Down conversion denial rate, as compared to the Patriots' 15th ranked 3rd down conversion rate. If the Browns are able to stymie New England's ability to convert 3rd down tries with the same success they've had so far this season (CLE: 66.3% 3d Conv. Denial Rate), they'll be doing well to keep points off the board and the game within reach for their offense.
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*Play types included were runs, passes, field goal attempts, penalties and punts
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
You've all heard the storylines by now. By many objective measures, New England has one of the best statistical defenses we've ever seen through seven weeks of a season; so it's no surprise they rank 1st in the league by EPA per play Allowed (Pass: 1st/Rush: 8th). Among notable conventional stats, New England is 1st in Scoring Efficiency Allowed, 3rd down conversion rate, Pass Yards Allowed, Completion Percentage Allowed and Turnovers Forced. The Pats rank 2nd in Sacks per Game and 3rd in Sack Rate; and they rank no lower than 15th in any statistical category presented above. Their defense has played at a dominant level against the competition they've faced so far this year, but - if there's a nit to pick here - it's the run defense.
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Notably, The Browns strengths in Rush Yards per Attempt (2nd) and Rush EPA per Play (8th) line up with the weakest element of New England's defense to date, where they rank 15th in the league in Rush YPA allowed and 8th in the league in Rush EPA per play Allowed. Given the strength of New England's defense against the pass, the Browns would be wise to rely on a heavy dose of the run game to attack this Patriots defense on Sunday, but this strategy will require the defense to keep things close on the scoreboard. In the passing game, the Browns' best bet is to rely on short passing to both get the ball out of Baker Mayfield's hands quickly, to string some positive gains together and to sustain drives. Patiently putting safe, positive gains together against this Patriots' defense is likely the Browns' best path to victory on offense.
Playcalling Tendencies:
The 2019 Patriots tend to pass more than they run, but overall are well-balanced from a play calling perspective. New England's First-Down pass rate (52.4%) falls in the high end of the middle third of the NFL, while their Second Down pass rate (67.7%) is just within the upper third of the league. On Third Downs, the Pats come back in line with league averages (or the league catches up with them), passing just as frequently as other teams in these situations. Of note, the Patriots are a bit of an anomaly on Fourth Down in that they run the ball 100% of the time, versus a league average pass rate in these situations of 53%.
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New England's aggressive passing attack continues into the Red Zone, where Brady and Co.'s pass rate on First and Second Downs are both within the upper third of the NFL comparatively. The league average again catches up with them on Third Down before the Pats break with leaguewide tendencies on Fourth Down by running the ball in 100% of these situations.
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Offensive Efficiency:
​While the Pats are most efficient (by EPA) on passes 10+ yards downfield, a whopping 47% of their pass attempts have been targeted between the LOS and 10yd DoT. In a discouraging coincidence, the Browns have given up above-average EPA to those same areas of the field (0-10yd DoT), so something's going to have to change for the Browns' defense to hold up against a passing attack that is likely to target them in one of their weakest areas defensively. If EPA's not your thing, the fact that the Browns have allowed completions to these areas at a 77% rate should be enough to convince you that the Browns shallow coverage matchup is not ideal against this Pats team. No added pressure, Greedy and Denzel, but the Browns really need you both to be the missing link this week if Cleveland is to stand a chance at keeping pace with New England on the scoreboard.
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Kent State's own Julian Edelman is the primary recipient of many of those shallow targets and newly acquired Mohammed Sanu seems well suited to replacing Josh Gordon's targets at roughly 9yd DoT. James White fits in as the primary check-down option for Tom Brady, who seems both happy to take the outlet and thrilled with the results, as White has proven to be adept at generating positive results (as measured by EPA) from these opportunities. Philip Dorsett has been the team's main deep threat this season and will likely continue to fill that role against the Browns this week.
New England's rushing game has been strongest to the left side of their formation, generating EPA and YPA a bit more effectively in that direction than elsewhere. The Patriots' tendency, however, seems to be to run to the right, as they have done so on roughly 42% of their attempts thus far this season (vs. 29% Left and 28% Center). Unfortunately again for the Browns, their defense has been weakest against runs to the right of their opponents' formations, giving up above-average to good EPA on these attempts and a very rough average of 5.7 yards per attempt.
​Defensive Efficiency:
Ideally, the Browns passing game would not be the primary focus for the offense in this matchup. With that said, when they do pass, the best areas to attack this New England secondary are at 0-10yd DoT across the field. Cleveland may be able to exploit a potential seam in their coverage on the right side of the field from 10-20yd DoT, an area where Cleveland has gained above-average EPA/target this season and where New England has allowed average EPA/target to opponents, but these shots should only be taken sparingly against a defense that has bullied every QB they've seen so far this season with their combination of excellent pressure and outstanding back-end coverage ability.
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The Browns' run game needs to be the focus this week, and the Browns would be wise to run to the right frequently. To date, New England's front is allowing poor EPA/attempt on opponents' rushing attempts to the left sides of their offensive formations, so avoiding this strength would be smart. Give Chris Hubbard the opportunity to provide a spark at the point of attack by rushing to the right side mostly, and let Greg Robinson focus his attention on winning battles on the passing situations that the Browns will undoubtedly find themselves in against a defense of the Patriots' skill level.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 10/24/2019.
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2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 10/24/2019
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3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/NE; Retrieved 10/24/2019.
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