brownalytics
CLEVELANd (2-5)
​
VS
​DENVeR (2-6)
sunday, NOVEMBER 3RD 2019
​
DENVER, CO
​The Browns head to Denver this week desperately searching for momentum and needing at least 7 wins, possibly even 8, from their last 9 games to secure a playoff spot. Penalties, missed tackles, dropped passes (and dropped interceptions) have all seemingly conspired to frustrate a Browns team that has the talent to be much better than 2-5, but along with their time to make corrections this season, the team's margin for error has become minimal as they enter week nine. The Browns matchup against a Denver team that has seemingly no long-term strategy at QB and who many expected to be sellers at the trade deadline. Denver's excellent defense has been depleted by injuries, but they're still a formidable group that has kept their team in games by slowing down opponents' offenses with notable success. Statistically speaking, projections of the Browns' upcoming games will likely be weighed down by their lackluster performance through the challenging first seven games of their schedule. We see evidence of this phenomenon in brownalytics's projection of their week nine game in Denver, as the numbers forecast a close loss to the Broncos by an estimated score of 23-15. With that said, the Browns have an opportunity to begin to prove that they're worthy of the hype and attention they received this off season, and that they're not the team they've shown themselves to be through the first half of 2019.
Of course, below we'll dive into a few key findings that could help to avoid this outcome, including:
​
- Cleveland's defensive pressure vs. Denver's protection of a QB getting his first NFL start this weekend
- The Browns' rushing offense against a Broncos team that is mediocre at stopping the run
- Cleveland's relative strength at throwing to the middle of the field, against a Denver defense that gives up above-average efficiency to this target area
​
But first, some thoughts from the opposing side of our week nine matchup with Denver...
​​Opposition Viewpoint:
As we plan to do for each game preview in 2019, Brownalytics will feature original analysis of how the Browns' opponents stack-up against Cleveland from the perspective of a fellow fan-alyst who follows that week's opponent in their free time. Next up to discuss the Broncos from an AFC West Rival's point of view is @ChiefsAnalytics!
The 2-6 Denver Broncos host the 2-5 Cleveland Browns on Sunday afternoon. Neither fan base is happy with how their team has performed thus far, and a loss for either team here will likely put the nail in the coffin on any fluttering optimism left for the rest of the season.
Despite neither side boasting a successful record thus far, there are some advantages to be found in this matchup. The Broncos will be rolling out new starting quarterback Brandon Allen, a former 6th round pick from the University of Arkansas who has yet to take an NFL snap in the regular season. Given that we can’t draw any meaningful conclusions from preseason data, it’s hard to guess how Allen will perform - but given his draft value our priors would be that it may not be pretty. To make matters worse, Allen will be protected by 26th ranked offensive line in Team Pass Block Win Rate (a metric created by ESPN), who will be tasked with stopping Myles Garret and the Browns Defensive Line, who rank 9th in Team Pass Rush Win Rate. Denver ranks 3rd in the league in Offensive Holding penalties per snap as well, so expect to see a few yellow flags thrown their way as they try to stop Myles Garret and company from reaching their new starting QB.
On the other side of the ball, the Broncos fair a bit better. The Browns are 4th worst in the league in Expected Points Added per offensive play at -0.09, while the Broncos defense is 12th in the league in defensive Expected Points Allowed, limiting their opponents to about 0 EPA per play. The Denver pass defense have also been the 13th in the league when it comes to limiting their opponents Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), while Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland offense have been 5th worst in CPOE. All of these stats point the Broncos keeping Mayfield in check, who has been 2nd worst in the league in adjusted QB EPA this year thus far.
Overall, this game is shaping up to be a low scoring slugfest, with both defenses looking far better on paper than the opposing offense. The biggest question mark will be if newcomer Brandon Allen can get this Denver offense moving, before he is swallowed up by the imposing Cleveland pass rush.
​
​​- Broncos pregame matchup analysis contributed by Ethan Douglas(Twitter: @ChiefsAnalytics)
Offensive Rankings vs. CLE Defensive Rankings:
Denver's offense isn't particularly strong at anything, ranking outside of the top quarter of the league in all categories presented above. Significant statistics where the Broncos are somewhat strong are in Completion Percentage (13th) and Turnovers Allowed (11th); combined, these speak to a conservative gameplan that leverages a heavy dose of the running game along with short, high percentage passes to avoid high leverage mistakes. Weaknesses are abundant, with the Broncos' offense's most notable issues appearing in scoring efficiency metrics (28th Points per Play/28th Points per Game), 3rd Down Conversion Percentage (30th), sack allowance (28th Sack Rate/26th Sacks per Game) and passing efficiency (27th Pass Yards per Game/24th Pass Yards per Attempt). If the Browns' defense is to have a dominant game to rebound from shaky outings in recent weeks, this is a great team to start against.
​
Cleveland's advantage that immediately jumps of the page is their ability to get after the opposing QB (5th Sack Rate/6th Sacks per Game) against a team that can't seem to protect theirs this year, especially with Brandon Allen getting his first NFL start this weekend. Additionally, Cleveland's ability to stop 3rd Down Conversions (6th 3d Down Conv. Percentage Allowed) bodes well for the defense's ability to stifle the Broncos in high leverage situations on Sunday. A concerning weakness relates to the Browns' porous rushing defense (25th Rush YPA)/(29th Rush YPG), which could negate their pass rush advantage if the Broncos are able to get Philip Lindsay going early, which Denver is likely to make a concerted effort to do considering their offensive tendencies to date.
Defensive Rankings vs. CLE Offensive Rankings:
The Broncos' defense is the clear strength of this team and will pose problems for a Browns offense that is desperately trying to find its groove at this point of the season. Denver ranks in the top quarter of the league in scoring efficiency allowed (8th Points Allowed per Game/9th Points Allowed per Play), in passing efficiency allowed (4th Pass Yards per Game/6th Pass Yards per Attempt), and in limiting opponents' ability to sustain drives (4th First Downs Allowed per Game/5th Plays Required per First Down Allowed/6th 3d Down Conversion Percentage Allowed). As for weaknesses, the Broncos haven't forced many turnovers on the year so far, but - as any Browns fan who watched last week's game against New England can attest - turnover luck change in an instant and isn't a defensive trait that should be considered heavily in game planning.
So far on the year, the Browns' offensive strength is the running game (1st Yards per Attempt) and Nick Chubb should get a significant amount of work this week against a Denver defense that is only mediocre at stopping opponents' run games (13th Rush Yards per Attempt Allowed). Assuming that the Browns don't somehow fall behind on the scoreboard again this week, a heavy dose of the run game would appear to be their best matchup against this Broncos defense. For all the success the Browns have had running the ball this season, they're bottom quarter in the league in scoring efficiency (22nd points per play/25th points per game) and need to start putting up points this week to get the offense rolling, so the passing game will have to figure into the game plan somehow. Unfortunately, the this is where Cleveland's offensive weaknesses of concern accumulate, with the team ranking near the bottom of the league in several significant categories (31st Comp. Percentage, 24th Sack Rate & 23rd Sacks per Game). Denver doesn't figure to be a team that will give up yardage through the air easily, so the Browns would be wise in testing the Broncos' pass defense in early down situations when running is more typical (First Down passing, anyone?) or when pre-snap reads signal a mismatch worth targeting on later downs.
Playcalling Tendencies:
In terms of play calling tendencies, it's unsurprising that Denver shapes up as a Run-Run-Pass team given their recent shaky play out of the QB position and the team's confidence in undrafted free-agent RB Philip Lindsay. The 2019 Broncos are bottom third in the league in both 1st and 2nd Down pass rate and middle third of the league in 3rd down pass rate, suggesting a team that plays conservatively until they're forced by circumstance to deviate from that plan.
​
On 3rd down conversion tries, the Broncos tend to be a run-first team in situations from 3rd and inches to 3rd and 4, after which (3rd and 5 through about 3rd and 9) they become a pass-first team. At about 3rd and 9, the Broncos tend, again, to run the ball with greater frequency, most likely hoping to catch opponents who are expecting a pass play off guard.
Denver's conservative play calling tendencies continue in the red zone, landing them in the bottom third of the league in pass rate on both 1st and 2nd Down, and top third in the league in pass frequency (likely out of necessity) on 3rd downs. The Broncos have yet to attempt a 4th down play in the red zone in game neutral situations, defined here by Denver's in-game win probability falling between 20% and 80%, thus far in 2019.
​​
Offensive Efficiency:
The Broncos have realized their best passing efficiency down the middle of the field this season, averaging positive EPA across attempts at all levels of depth when they attack between the seams. The Browns have given up above-average EPA to these same target areas this season, so if there's an area for the Broncos to exploit in the air, it's the middle of the field. Of course, the Broncos are forced to press backup Brandon Allen into duty this week due to a neck injury sustained by starter Joe Flacco, so their target tendencies may need to shift to align with his skill set to maximize Denver's passing efficiency this week.
​
Looking at Brandon Allen's body of work in the 2019 preseason, we note that his best efficiency was gained in the 0-10yd DoT range to the left of the field and in the 10-20yd DoT range to the middle and left of the field. Allen's success in throwing to 10-20yd DoT - albeit in the preseason - could be enough for Denver's coaching staff to keep the middle pass in play against the Browns this week, especially given the efficiency they've realized in throwing there so far this season.
Denver's target chart is one of the most unbalanced that we've seen this season. Courtland Sutton is the only downfield threat for this offense (now that Emmanuel Sanders has been traded to San Francisco) and his ADoT checks in just shy of 12 yards per target. This offense is conservative; instead of attacking downfield, they dump targets into their RBs and TEs at typical depths of 0 and 6 yards respectively, typically generating negative EPA when they do. The Browns' linebackers will need to be ready to cover on passing downs, no doubt, but assuming the Broncos hold true to their tendencies they'll save passing attempts for downs and distances where most defenses would expect them.
The Broncos are an average-to-above average running team, but find their most success running left and to the inside of their formation. For their part, the Browns have been decent at shutting down interior runs to the left, but have struggled against runs off end in that direction this season. In a tendency (Denver Run Rate) on weakness (Cleveland Run Defense) matchup this Sunday, it's really going to be a toss up in terms of where the advantage ends up lying here. As long as Cleveland's defensive line maintains gap integrity and doesn't let themselves get too excited about getting into the backfield, they have the talent to stop a team that hasn't wowed with its ability to ground and pound this season. On the other hand, if the Browns' discipline at the point of attack breaks down, opening holes that the linebackers can't fill, the Broncos will find the rushing efficiency that has eluded them for the most part so far this season. The Browns' defense needs to remember that their opponent this week is very conservative in their offensive philosophy; matching that on 1st and 2nd downs by maintaining gap discipline and putting them in untenable 3rd-and-long situations would seem to be the best strategy against Denver's run game on Sunday.
​Defensive Efficiency:
The Broncos have allowed above average-to-good EPA on throws up the seams this season, which aligns with the Browns' best passing strength at 10-20yd DoT between the seams. Logic would suggest that the Browns should attack the middle area of the field more than they have so far this season, but through week nine they have attempted only 21% of their passes to the middle of the field, as opposed to 44% right and 35% left. Can the team change tack in the face of an opponent who might allow increased opportunity to a portion of the field that the Browns haven't targeted frequently this season? This is yet another interesting question that the team can answer in their matchup at Denver this Sunday.
​
The Browns' best bet running the ball this week is to run wide left, where the Broncos are allowing above average-to-good efficiency to opponents thus far in the season. Conversely, biasing against runs to the right, where the Browns have mostly struggled and the Broncos have been strong, would seem to be optimal when selecting plays to call in the run game this weekend. In a matchup where the run game is Cleveland's most pronounced offensive differentiator, pressing this advantage by running toward areas of Denver's defensive weakness would seem to be the most efficient way for the Browns to capitalize.
Sources:
1. Horowitz, Maksim, Ventura, Sam & Yurko, Ron (2016). NFLScrapr; Rstats package for accessing NFL play-by-play data, providing expected points and win probability estimate. Retrieved 10/31/2019.
​
2. Pro Football Reference. Retrieved from https://www.pro-football-reference.com; 10/31/2019
​
3. Ourlads NFL Scouting Services. Retrieved from https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/DEN; Retrieved 10/31/2019.
​
4. Ethan Douglas. "CLE vs DEN". Message to brownalytics@gmail.com. 10/31/2019. E-Mail.
​